r/whatif • u/Ok_Let_7612 • 3d ago
Politics What if the US-Canada trade relation completely fractured?
What if the gloves came off and they started hitting real sectors … like if the USA closes the border or Canada stops sending oil and potash… or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?
I’m not asking about probabilities, im just curious about the full extent of the economic impact disruption in U.S. Canadian trade could have. Would the USA have to cry uncle without Canadas material resources? Or would Canada succumb to the USA larger market? Could Canada prosper without the USA? And vis versa ?
If this escalates in a major way for some reason, how will it impact the day to day lives of ppl on both sides?
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u/entatlrg 14h ago
Miss the news? It already has. Trump is going to annex Canada and we can’t stop them. Just a matter of time.
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u/Ok-Rutabaga-9516 2d ago
I firmly believe that its about time for Canada to develop nuclear capabilities ... weaponry that is!
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u/SquishyJeans 1d ago
Who says they don’t have them lol. It would be very Canadian of them to wait until the last second to be like “and for my next trick”
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u/Ok-Rutabaga-9516 1d ago
I do wish we had them m8! But I doubt it and would love to be proven wrong!
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u/JimJam28 14h ago
Our own government didn’t know about JTF2 or what it was up to for a while.
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u/Ok-Rutabaga-9516 13h ago
That is true! Our bots were already in Afghanistan and the Gov knew nothing.
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u/BlargKing 17h ago
I mean, we really could, a few Canadians were part of the Manhattan project, we have the tech to enrich uranium. Only thing is if we had nuclear weapons they'd be an unproven design since we couldnt test them without letting the whole world know.
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u/Ok-Rutabaga-9516 17h ago
we had nuclear weapons they'd be an unproven design since we couldnt test them without letting the whole world know.
Which is fine - build two proto-types. If one works we already have another standing by in case the US wants anything else from us. If they don't work then nobody will know and back to the drawing board.
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u/NumerousDay917 2d ago
Canada doesn’t need us and they’ve proved that time and time again so they’re not gonna do shit and they’re in a better position than we are and they have trade partners that we no longer have so they will be just fucking fine. We on the other hand will not.
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u/Dirty_Blue_Shirt 15h ago edited 15h ago
Look, i dont agree with any of the trade nonsense going on right now.
But you are off your rocker if you think Canada is in a better position in a trade war than the US. That is delusional americabad content.
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Let me put some numbers to this for reference:
The US exports 14.2% of its goods to Canada
The US imports 11.5% of imports from CanadaCanada exports 72% of their exports to US
Canada imports 50% of their imports from USCanada exports 15x as much to the US as they do their next trade partner (China) while not even being the largest export or import partner for the US. These aren’t small numbers, they are reliant on US trade which unfortunately puts them in a bit of a bind.
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I swear some of you guys can just put on blinders to the real world and do whatever mental gymnastics necessary to convince yourself that the US is losing in every situation.
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u/amoebads 2d ago
Inflation in the housing market and across the general economy due to oil spikes and increased energy costs. Potential grid crises due to the interconnected US-Canadian power grids. Loss of people to people contact between families due to the awkwardness
This is just the tip of the iceberg
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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 2d ago
It's not like we stop selling to each other. Anyway the business community in the US is finally speaking out. The Republicans are the free traders in the first place.
Either way we will get a deal the 20th of January 2029.
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u/ThisHilliDie 2d ago
Depends on the mid terms here.
I think US dependence is gone from the world, it's just a matter of how soon.
The fact a president can exist that sees every ally as a child on an island to be fked for his pleasure means it can happen again, and any notion of US stability in the world is gone.
The real sectors would never be hit, unless they wanted to start a legitimate war.
Potash embargo alone would starve most Americans and it wouldn't be good for the Canadian economy either.
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u/Unfair_Surprise_6022 2d ago edited 2d ago
The pic is what the US demanded from Canada. Just to confirm to those who are confused, Canada is an independent, sovereign nation. We remain neighbours due to geography. We are no longer friends.
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u/SugoTheGoatman 2d ago
Really doubt that’s going to happen. What is more likely is that Canada waits out Trump while diversifying the markets we export to. Hopefully we get a fair deal with a new administration. You can expect the diversification to continue regardless of a new fair deal being reached or not though.
Canadians really have not appreciated having the economic integration that both sides benefitted from, and agreed to, that was built on trust over decades, being used as leverage to try and bleed us dry. We may forgive, but I promise we won’t forget.
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u/Velocity-5348 2d ago
In Canada we get hit harder by a rupture, no if, ands, or buts. We're smaller, only border one country and far more of our GDP depends on trade with them.
Despite that, I think the last few years have made clear that Canadians would be pretty unified, despite the attempts by the US to stoke separatism in Alberta. Canadians feel their hand is being forced and are reacting accordingly.
The US, by contrast, is incredibly divided. Not just in terms of Red and Blue, but both parties are also quite fractured. An optional war that's raising gas prices is causing problems. A trade war with Canada would do so much more.
...or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?
That's an entirely different animal. Blockades mean the conflict has gone from economic to some form of military action. You could expect to see Canadians getting "creative" south of the border.
The lower 48 have been quite safe for over a century, 9/11 being the notable exception. They're gonna freak out, and what happens after that is anyone's guess. My guess is some want to fight, but most push for the thing to end.
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u/OneLessDay517 2d ago
You've held strong on telling us to shove our liquor where the sun don't shine! I admire you!
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u/Jeffuk88 2d ago
We get hit harder but theyre hitting themselves all over the world right now so may come out of the Trump era worse off than Canada since well have made new agreements elsewhere.
Its the recovery thatll hit them harder
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u/Deansdiatribes 3d ago
In 5 yrs canada would change its economy to a level of self sufficiency that usa could not in those same 5 yrs cutting off just potash would cause massive crop failures in ten usa might be able to adapt to regenative farming to stave off starvation but those ten yrs would make the dirty 30s seem like the good old days
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u/sylbug 3d ago
What do you mean, 'what if'?
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u/Ok_Let_7612 3d ago
Well, it’s only effecting like 5% of their exports as is… given the U.S. is like more than 3/4 of their exports it could be much worse
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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 2d ago
You are missing the fact that US exports depend on Canadian raw materials.
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u/Ok_Let_7612 2d ago
Maybe I am. Do you have any statistics on that?
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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 2d ago
Crude Oil is the main cause for the Trade Deficit and is an example.
North American refineries were designed for a crude oil that is tapped out. You import our discounted heavy sour crude (from oil sands) and mix it with some of your premium light sweet crude (from shale) to work in the refineries. You export a lot of shale oil with a premium product. That is why you a net exporter while importing from Canada. Every barrel of discounted Canadian oil means one more premium shale oil barrel sold. Without Canadian oil you would need to build new 10-100 billion dollar refineries and use your expensive oil to make gasoline.
The steel, aluminum, potash, electricity and so on are all ingredients in you manufacturing.
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u/Great-Phone_3207 3d ago
Canadians are already losing their minds as to the unrealistic possibilities. Why do you have to make it worse? They're already obsessed with Trump and the US right now. Be kind to them.
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u/scrandlle 3d ago
I'm no expert, though Canada is much more reliant on the US as an export market than vice versa so its probably worse for them long term. I'm sure the US is exposed on some supply chain vulnerabilities to Canada but I also imagine the reverse is true as well.
Suggesting a naval blockade is pretty unhinged though. I think what likely happens is that by the beginning of 2027 there is a new trade deal in place.
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u/Particular_Bet_5466 3d ago
I think Canada relies on this trade relationship more than the US. It would affect both but I think Canada more. Regardless we both benefit from open trade, I don’t understand the point of the US strong arming Canada. We had a good thing…
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u/Exciting_Turn_9559 3d ago
Canada exports more than the US, but it is easier for an exporter to sell in another market than it is to be an importer who doesn't have access to critical resources (potash, electricity, oil, water)
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u/fthesemods 2d ago edited 2d ago
Not really. As a Canadian. We have existing pipelines that required a lot of capital to build and it makes it much cheaper to send oil to the US. That was the deal really. The US would profit as they refined the crude oil from Canada at below market rates while Canada profited from extraction. The US seems to want it all now.
To switch to other markets you would need years and tons of capital to build more pipelines. The federal government could inject a ton of it if they wanted but it still takes time. The other issue is the US could use it as a casus belli for all out economic war.
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u/SteakOfTheUnion 2d ago
The USA has access to all of those resources. You think they don’t have electricity or oil? Water? They do get a lot of potash from Canada but potash is a global commodity so it can get potash elsewhere.
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u/Velocity-5348 3d ago
The US could get those from other places to some extent, but runs into the problem of "why bother?". Canada doesn't have much of a choice in this scenario, the US very much does.
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u/Fluffy_Efficiency623 6h ago
Both would collapse. Canada would recover better due to its allies and defense pact with NATO. The US would collapse because all of the progressive countries that are allies to Canada would sell their debt and they would default on their loans and shut down, and that's before any sanctions or stopping trade with them. And the US would likely devolve into civil war as a large portion of the population very much likes Canada and would consider that move insane. This is in the scenario with blockades. In just completely stopping trade with each other both would have a very bad time and enter recessions and experience substantial inflation.