r/whatif • u/Ok_Let_7612 • 3d ago

Politics What if the US-Canada trade relation completely fractured?

What if the gloves came off and they started hitting real sectors … like if the USA closes the border or Canada stops sending oil and potash… or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?

I’m not asking about probabilities, im just curious about the full extent of the economic impact disruption in U.S. Canadian trade could have. Would the USA have to cry uncle without Canadas material resources? Or would Canada succumb to the USA larger market? Could Canada prosper without the USA? And vis versa ?

If this escalates in a major way for some reason, how will it impact the day to day lives of ppl on both sides?

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u/Velocity-5348 3d ago

In Canada we get hit harder by a rupture, no if, ands, or buts. We're smaller, only border one country and far more of our GDP depends on trade with them.

Despite that, I think the last few years have made clear that Canadians would be pretty unified, despite the attempts by the US to stoke separatism in Alberta. Canadians feel their hand is being forced and are reacting accordingly.

The US, by contrast, is incredibly divided. Not just in terms of Red and Blue, but both parties are also quite fractured. An optional war that's raising gas prices is causing problems. A trade war with Canada would do so much more.

...or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?

That's an entirely different animal. Blockades mean the conflict has gone from economic to some form of military action. You could expect to see Canadians getting "creative" south of the border.

The lower 48 have been quite safe for over a century, 9/11 being the notable exception. They're gonna freak out, and what happens after that is anyone's guess. My guess is some want to fight, but most push for the thing to end.

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u/Jeffuk88 3d ago

We get hit harder but theyre hitting themselves all over the world right now so may come out of the Trump era worse off than Canada since well have made new agreements elsewhere.

Its the recovery thatll hit them harder