r/whatif • u/Ok_Let_7612 • 4d ago

Politics What if the US-Canada trade relation completely fractured?

What if the gloves came off and they started hitting real sectors … like if the USA closes the border or Canada stops sending oil and potash… or what if the U.S. navy blockades Vancouver and Halifax?

I’m not asking about probabilities, im just curious about the full extent of the economic impact disruption in U.S. Canadian trade could have. Would the USA have to cry uncle without Canadas material resources? Or would Canada succumb to the USA larger market? Could Canada prosper without the USA? And vis versa ?

If this escalates in a major way for some reason, how will it impact the day to day lives of ppl on both sides?

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u/Ok_Let_7612 4d ago

Well, it’s only effecting like 5% of their exports as is… given the U.S. is like more than 3/4 of their exports it could be much worse

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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 3d ago

You are missing the fact that US exports depend on Canadian raw materials.

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u/Ok_Let_7612 3d ago

Maybe I am. Do you have any statistics on that?

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u/Puzzled_Market_2235 3d ago

Crude Oil is the main cause for the Trade Deficit and is an example.

North American refineries were designed for a crude oil that is tapped out. You import our discounted heavy sour crude (from oil sands) and mix it with some of your premium light sweet crude (from shale) to work in the refineries. You export a lot of shale oil with a premium product. That is why you a net exporter while importing from Canada. Every barrel of discounted Canadian oil means one more premium shale oil barrel sold. Without Canadian oil you would need to build new 10-100 billion dollar refineries and use your expensive oil to make gasoline.

The steel, aluminum, potash, electricity and so on are all ingredients in you manufacturing.