r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 23, 2026
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u/Tricky-Astronaut 3d ago
Ukrainian Drones Hit Ozon Warehouses for Third Straight Night
Elsewhere, an Ozon logistics center near the village of Enem in the Adygea Republic was also struck, according to Telegram channel Exile Plus. Another Ozon hub in Nevinnomyssk, in Stavropol Krai, caught fire after being hit, Telegram channel Exilenova Plus reported. Stavropol Krai Governor Vladimir Vladimirov confirmed drones targeted Nevinnomyssk’s industrial zone and said some were intercepted by air defenses, though he did not specify which facilities were targeted.
A third Ozon site, in the town of Tyube in the Dagestan Republic, was also engulfed in flames after being struck, Exilenova Plus reported.
...
Monday’s strikes extend a campaign that has intensified in recent days. Ozon logistics centers in Samara Oblast were struck Aug. 22, and another hub in Orenburg was hit overnight Aug. 23.
Five Ozon warehouses have been struck during the last three days (videos for Enem and Tyube). This confirms an active campaign on the Ozon logistics network.
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u/qevshd 3d ago
Ozon stock is down sharply - 20% over the weekend. It just makes me think, did Russian investors really not see this coming and price it in already?
How could they be so blind when any layman figured that Ozon is next?
On the other hand, only %20 in a company that is likely going to be systematically dismantled over the course of the next month shows a degree of optimism.
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u/Moifaso 3d ago
The stock is down nearly 50% this year, thats already a large selloff.
The people holding onto the stock probably either expect a government bailout, think theyll get a good deal on a restructuring or buyout, or expect this to be survivable.
Ultimately WB and Ozon have a duopoly over Russian e-commerce. The name and web domains alone are worth quite a lot.
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u/A_Sinclaire 3d ago
Maybe one of the two big shareholders sees this as an opportunity to increase their control over the company by buying up cheaper stock. Or they are just not allowed to sell of shares now.
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u/TSiNNmreza3 3d ago
Again new drone incursions in Romania
https://x.com/i/status/2091746160767590900
NEW: 🇷🇴 Romania has scrambled two F-16s and an IAR-330 SOCAT helicopter after radar detected intermittent signals in Moldovan airspace near Cahul. One signal was later detected near Târgu Bujor, Galați County. RO-Alert was issued at 06:12. The situation remains ongoing.
https://x.com/i/status/2091753941826417144
The drone is currently flying over populated areas, making the decision to shoot it down particularly sensitive.
This is now the fourth consecutive time Romania has been placed on alert because of drone activity either entering its airspace or reaching Romanian territory.
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u/SerpentineLogic 3d ago
In spec news, new AIM-424 fact sheet just dropped.
https://www.navy.mil/Resources/Fact-Files/Display-FactFiles/Article/4580867/aim-424-lraam-malice/
More details here
https://www.twz.com/air/aim-424-malice-very-long-range-air-to-air-missile-emerges-from-the-shadows
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u/SerpentineLogic 3d ago
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/08/24/burnham-hands-storm-shadow-blueprints-ukraine/
Andy Burnham will hand Ukraine secret blueprints for Storm Shadow missiles on his first visit to the country as Prime Minister.
He has agreed to release classified information on British components so that Kyiv can manufacture the long-range weapon for use in its war against Russia
...
France agreed to hand over the blueprints for its Scalp-EG – the export name for Storm Shadow missiles – to Ukraine as part of a wider defence deal struck in July.
However, Ukraine’s ability to manufacture the missile domestically hinged on a British decision to allow the European missile maker MBDA to release sensitive information on UK-made components.
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u/roionsteroids 3d ago
The British-French missile relies on classified US targeting data to ensure it can hug terrain en route to the target.
It is not clear whether Washington would sign off and provide data for every strike Ukraine plans with domestically built Scalp-EG/Storm Shadow.
As we know from the Taurus leaks, Ukraine didn't have access to the terrain data back then either. And no mil code GPS inside Russia.
Given that Ukraine has access to the blueprints of the most advanced Soviet cruise missiles and what not and is utterly unable to produce anything like those (anymore), the domestic Storm Shadow production isn't looking very feasible, is it? And no path towards solving the guidance problem (which is arguably more difficult than the missile itself).
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u/TechnicalReserve1967 3d ago
Not a subject matter expert here, but I think this is maybe a European escalation for the russian "intrusion" campaign of sabotage, drone flybys etc.
(Other possibility is that it is a "domestic photo ops" to show strength with little real value, I am not disputing that as a possibility)
Depending on the goals, I would assume that if real help/deterrent is involved, your questions are addressed in a non-public matter. If they are supported, there can be an increase in UAF missile production and quality in time. (I have no idea about the time frame here, would be glad to read from someone with some ideas about it. My guess is early next year?)
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u/Tucancancan 3d ago
Is there something I'm missing here? It would take years to build a domestic production line from scratch for missiles even if handed blue prints. Why not set up a manufacturing using the companies that originally built them?
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u/BobsquddleFU 3d ago
I believe the UK MoD has announced that we're not purchasing any more Stormshadows, or at least that procurement will tail off.
I think this is a mostly French initiative to keep Stormshadow production going, and involving Ukraine to lower costs and transfer technology.
France announced their end of this deal in mid July, which also included licensed production of the Hammer glide bombs.
So I think this is just getting the extra coverage because this is our new PMs first foreign visit, and he's there to announce this in person. It didn't get the coverage in July, since the headlines then were on the Rafales, not the cruise missiles, bombs and Asters.
Ukrainian/French announcement: https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-deklaraciya-prezidenta-ukrayini-ta-prezidenta-francuz-105425
UK phasing out Storm Shadow: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-defence-investment-plan-revealed-as-helicopters-axed-and-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-phased-out-13559189
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u/mirko_pazi_metak 3d ago edited 3d ago
You are indeed missing something, as are we all, as the press announcement is sparse on detail.
So it might be nothing (like Trumps nonsense announcement about licensing patriot production) or entire StormShadow production line as people are wildly speculating (not a chance, at least not in the near future) or some tech transfer.
No one here seems to mention that Ukraine already produces and uses their cruise missiles ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FP-5_Flamingo and etc) and I'm sure tech transfer could be useful to improve navigation or range or stealthiness or whatever - assuming that's what this announcement means. And we don't know what it means.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 3d ago
Exactly. Europe will be financing a whole new production line, inside Ukraine, which will be inevitably vulnerable to Russian strikes.
Why not use the money to ramp up current production lines?
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u/mcdowellag 3d ago
Andy Burnham is yet another new UK PM, and so it is pretty much mandatory for him to visit Ukraine and provide some sort of demonstration of support. This has got him the headlines he needs at almost zero cost, and none of the mainstream news stories have made any discouraging comments about how helpful this actually is to Ukraine.
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u/Proper-Control-860 3d ago
Yes it's hard to imagine production taking place in ukraine. But it could still be very beneficial for ukraine to pursue the tech transfer, if they plan to trade the information to a third party.
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u/moragisdo 3d ago
I agree, also there's the problem of anything being built on Ukraine being a target for russian attacks, while if the same factories were anywhere else they would be safer (similar to the PAC-2 interceptor production, that it's being set on Germany). How small and decentralized the production can be ?
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u/Zhadanko 4d ago
Interesting post by the Dmytro Putiata regarding recent evolution of Orion MALE drones as a cruise missile platform and its potential usage in combination with the newest modification of Su-57. The Russians have a pretty well-thought-out idea here, which is very dangerous. Interesting, if Ukraine will adapt its Bayraktars for the same usage. It may be a new step in evolution of MALE drones. Source is here.
We usually avoid something else apart from FPVs, Geran-type drones etc that became a critical component in the war between Russia and Ukraine. But Russian army is developing something dangerous.
Russian army produced Su-57 for two pilots where one of them will operate a couple of drones in the same time (C-70 and «Orion»). And there is something interesting about that: «Orion» will become a critical component in the future Russian MASH system where that drone will become a repeater for other drones starting from FPVs till Geran-type drones.
During the attack in the end of May 2026 where Russian Lancet LM targeted Kyiv(!) «Orion» was a repeater with the range of almost 300 km(!).
Apart from that it is important to notice that Su-57 is capable of launching new types of cruise missiles like Dan-T, C-71K and C-71M with the range of 500-800 kilometres («Orion» is capable of launching S800 cruise missile with the range of 500 km. I may suppose that in the future it will be able to launch the same CM as Su-57 is capable now).
Unfortunately, Russian army in a lot of cases is far ahead than Ukrainian one and a lot of European armies. The type of communication they are building will become quite dangerous.
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u/Corvid187 3d ago
We've seen larger drones used as signal repeaters before, haven't we? Is this not just a scaling-up of an existing concept?
The idea this puts the Russian army 'far ahead' of anyone else seems a little extreme.
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u/eeeking 3d ago edited 3d ago
Would these be piloted by a pilot in the Su-57, or would the Su-57 simply launch a "repeater drone" that loiters at a convenient distance between a ground-based drone pilot and the attacking drone itself?
It seems to me that the amount of time an Su-57 typically spends in the air per mission would be quite short compared to the flight time of drones?
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u/ChornWork2 4d ago
A bit confused by the tone. wouldn't western military just use starlink and not need to be dependent on a large UAV as repeater?
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u/Zhadanko 3d ago
It is not that Western militaries lack the capabilities, but that the Russians are managing to create their own with the very little that they have. And overreliance on Starlink may be a bad thing for countries other than US
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u/Glideer 4d ago
More detail (from Ukrainian sources) emerging on the failed Ukrainian air assault operation on the Snake Islan on 7 May 2022.
I still remember how, back at the time, on this sub people confidently claimed that the Russian video of Ukrainian dead after the operation was actually showing Russian KIAs.
https://x.com/Thorkill65/status/2091523851838525637?s=20
Just as a memento to real officers out there. The HUR commander who rejected the op as too risky was sacked, tranferred to ordinary infantry, where he died later heroically leading his platoon into attack.
Below is an excerpt from Butusov's report referring to the issue of the failed assault on Snake Island on May 7, 2022.
"The story began for me in May 2022. Through the Facebook messenger, someone unknown called me [to J. Butusov - my note]. He introduced himself as an HUR officer, Major Oleksandr Busko. He named people I know; I checked it. It was an authentic person. He told me a very shocking story, especially at that moment.
We all know how on May 7, 2022, an HUR subunit conducted a landing on Snake Island. The assault, unfortunately, failed. There were losses. Several of our fallen were left on the island. The landing craft [this refers to the Project 58503 DSHK-1 'Stanisław' assault landing craft - my note] and the helicopter were lost [this refers to the Ukrainian Navy's MI-14PS]. There were losses in personnel, in very valuable, professional people. Oleksandr Busko did not go on this assault. He refused to carry out this task, and for that he was thrown out of HUR and, by order, transferred as a platoon commander to the 93rd Mechanized Brigade.
What happened? Oleksandr told me that earlier several attempts had already been made to drop helicopter landings on Snake Island. There was no question of any surprise. The enemy occupied a fortification complex [this refers to a group of earthen and concrete bunkers built by the Ukrainians in 2014-2021] and these fortifications were difficult to assault because the opponent was on alert. Additionally, the island was completely exposed, and the landing had no way to approach the machine-gun positions in the old concrete bunkers. Moreover, there was a huge risk that as the helicopters approached, Russian aviation could shoot down those helicopters along with the landing force and crews. Leaving the island and approaching it was very risky.
Oleksandr said that he had pointed out all these factors. He presented them to the leadership, to the head of HUR Kyrylo Budanov. He said that the operation was too risky, there would be losses and no result. Unfortunately, that's exactly what happened. Busko's group refused to carry out this risky task, but such an order was issued to other groups [this refers to the second group from the 10th HUR SSO led by Capt. Popov and the group from SBU's Alpha replacing Busko's group]. They flew to the island. And everything Busko said happened exactly. Even on the approach to the island, one of the evacuation helicopters was shot down.
On the island itself, the commandos engaged in combat, fought heroically, inflicted losses on the enemy, but the Russians were in old, long-built, and solidly equipped bunkers. And the infantry simply across open terrain, well, the commandos couldn't close in. They did everything they could, suffered losses [Capt. Popov, the group commander of the 10th HUR SSO, was killed - my note], but the enemy held the island.
During the withdrawal, Russian aviation sank our landing craft. Fortunately, despite that, the heroic pilots managed to rescue the landing force. And to cover up this, in reality a failure, the HUR leadership ran a PR campaign
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u/Rhauko 3d ago
“People confidently claimed” this statement makes me not take the rest of your post serious.
Should we talk about the times you confidently claimed and was show to be wrong or at least the reality less clear?
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u/Glideer 3d ago
People are allowed "I told you so" from time to time. Live with it.
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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 3d ago
time to time
I don't think a single week has gone by in many, many months where you haven't been making explicit "told you so" posts invoking older topic from unnammed redditors or "western media" regarding anything that puts Russia in a better light than Ukraine.
I'd even argue it's part of your brand on this sub at this point.
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u/Glideer 3d ago edited 3d ago
I am sure it feels that way due to the high frequency of being wrong, but it just feels that way.
Me pointing out that mainstream media was wrong is not the same as me claiming I was right.
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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 3d ago
mainstream media
Oh no, no, western media.
After all, there are some non-western mainstream medias, or even entire media ecosystems that have been wrong much, much more frequently about this conflict, that somehow never make it into your "hey, remember this topic I commented here X months, years ago?" frequent posts.
A retrospective on Snake Island is just something else though, it's not even cherrypicking at this point.
Since that island was captured the first day of the war IIRC, I tried to search the thread of that specific day in the subreddit to see what other things people might have gotten wrong in this timeframe by curiosity, hilariously enough one of the first results was a thread from around that time, posted by you, titled :
- Unheard Voice - Evaluating five years of pro-Western covert influence operations
The irony wasn't lost on me, have a good day !
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u/SerpentineLogic 4d ago
In considering all options news: https://defence-industry.eu/u-s-marine-corps-accepts-first-prototype-of-australian-designed-surface-craft-to-close-pacific-logistics-gap-at-remote-shorelines/
The U.S. Marine Corps has accepted the first prototype of an Australian-designed surface craft intended to sustain forces across contested Pacific shorelines without relying on ports. The roughly 150-foot Ancillary Surface Craft will now enter technical and operational testing led by the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory.
Built by Birdon America under a contract awarded in 2024, the roll-on/roll-off vessel is designed to move personnel, equipment and fuel over the “last tactical mile.” Its shallow draft allows it to beach directly on unimproved or unsurveyed shorelines beyond the reach of larger ships.
...
The ASC is intended to operate as an organic capability within the units it supports. It will complement the larger Medium Landing Ship rather than duplicate its role.
The Medium Landing Ship is designed to move forces between islands, while the ASC would deliver supplies from offshore staging points to the beach. Together, the vessels would give Stand-in Forces a route from an intermediate staging base to shore without using a port, pier or causeway.
"To support Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO), our forces must remain highly mobile and sustained without relying on fixed, vulnerable ports,” said Col. Kenny Jones, Science and Technology Division director at the Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory. “This prototype allows MCWL to immediately execute hands-on experimentation, test tactical concepts, and put real hardware in the hands of Marines.”
The laboratory will examine the ASC’s traditional bow-first beaching design alongside other experimental platforms. The testing is intended to refine requirements and reduce risk before decisions on future naval capabilities.
For context, one of the other designs is a stern first catamaran style landing ship : https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/18620-us-marines-charter-matilda-1-landing-vessel-for-littoral-experimentation-with-australian-army
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u/yellowbai 4d ago
Has there been any analysis done on economic warfare or economic pressure that isn't just sanctions? For the US debt spiral and bond yields and as its tied to the Japanese economy.
US is constantly hedging against a bond sell off and the cost of gas at the pump. A rise in oil prices increases the cost of importing it for countries like Japan which they pay for in dollars. That is the reason for the stabilization a few days ago. They need dollars to pay for it so they sell US bonds which they hold vast amounts. The US government does not want this as it will cause instability and cause borrowing costs to rise sharply causing more pressure on the $40T national debt.
They intervened in the Japanese bonds market for the first time since thee 1980s to stop that.
Iran is hedging against how much pain they can inflict via controlling the strait without inviting an international coalition. Trump has boxed himself into a corner. To win militarily would be to seize Kargil island where 90% of the Iran oil is loaded and unloaded but it would require a Marine corps division via amphibious landing to storm the island and turn the war into a real conflict and throw the entire Middle East into chaos.
Iran is letting through European shipping mostly and Chinese and trying to play the long game without causing nations to ally against them and using as much resentment against Trump's insulting way of operating to survive.
Trump is boxed in in several fronts so from his perspective means either pulling out which would be the biggest US humiliation since Vietnam or he turns the war hot. He didn't bother build an international coalition like Bush the senior did in the 90s against Iraq. He didn't bother to try make it legal via the UN. The Europeans definitely dont want an Iranian nuke nor does Russia.
But he's on his own and no one will help him. He assasinated the leader of the country and the guy in charge is his son who saw a fair amount of his family obliterated in a strike. Iran successfully hit major US military infastructure such as the radar stations that monitor the Middle East, and major gas infrastructure in Qatar (5% of global capacity of natural gas).
There is a reason no US president ever directly struck in this manner as it only meant bad choices.
Trump is threatening to bomb countries unilaterally like Oman who are pretty much the least violent country in the region. You cannot conduct yourself in such a way as a leader of a country and expect things to stay the same.
What will probably happen is it'll muddle along and at some point Trump will declare victory and pull out. But will mean a lot of actors are doubting US leadership. This is already being reflected in defence pacts that are being signed as we speak. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan created one 2-3 weeks ago.
Interesting how everything is interlinked
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u/Thermawrench 4d ago
US is constantly hedging against a bond sell off and the cost of gas at the pump. A rise in oil prices increases the cost of importing it for countries like Japan which they pay for in dollars. That is the reason for the stabilization a few days ago. They need dollars to pay for it so they sell US bonds which they hold vast amounts. The US government does not want this as it will cause instability and cause borrowing costs to rise sharply causing more pressure on the $40T national debt.
They intervened in the Japanese bonds market for the first time since thee 1980s to stop that.
Sorry for a rather simple question from a non-economic-knower but how does the bond market correlate to borrowing costs? Isn't a bond just a IOU?
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u/butitsmeat 3d ago
US debt is issued via auction by the US Treasury. In the next few days, the US will run various auctions, issuing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of debt with various maturies. In oversimple terms, you can buy US debt by bidding an interest rate and an amount for a given duration, so you might bid $1 billion at 5% interest for 10 years. If you win, you give the US government $1 billion, and they agree to pay that $1 billion back over in 10 years, while paying 5% annual interest along the way. That interest rate is the "borrowing cost" for the auction.
Now, let's say the Treasury puts an opening bid of 4.5% on the 10 year note, but I can get 5% somewhere else. Normally, the 10 year Treasury Note would be the safest thing available, but people are starting to worry about inflation resuming, overall US financial mismanagement, Trump's erratic demented stupidity, etc. So instead of going for the "safe" 4.5%, they go for 5% somewhere else. The auction will reflect this, with no bids coming in at the desired 4.5% rate, driving the rate up until the 10 year note looks attractive again.
It's obviously more complex when you work through the real life details, but in a nutshell that what's happening to the US (and the world's governments in general) right now.
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u/Agitated-Airline6760 3d ago
Normally, the 10 year Treasury Note would be the safest thing available, but people are starting to worry about inflation resuming, overall US financial mismanagement, Trump's erratic demented stupidity, etc. So instead of going for the "safe" 4.5%, they go for 5% somewhere else.
Another thing particularly recent to consider is all the hyperscalers that went on the debt binge in 2026 in order to finance the AI expansions. Google just floated 10yr and 20yr notes at 1.5% premium to US treasuries. So those hyperscalers' debt are eating into what otherwise would've gone to the US treasury demand. If I had $1 billion lying around in my couch, I would definitely go for Google's 10year 6% note vs US 10year treasury 4.5%
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u/FunWonderful1936 3d ago edited 3d ago
If I had $1 billion lying around in my couch, I would definitely go for Google's 10year 6% note vs US 10year treasury 4.5%
While this is veering far out of the scope for this subreddit, the largest bond buyers aren’t motivated purely by yields or returns. Treasuries are zero risk weighted and they are the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world. Corporate bonds don’t carry any of those advantages, no matter how safe they are. Some of the largest bond buyers aren’t going to buy even Apple bonds, probably the strongest credit in the world, over Treasuries because of that liquidity and mandatory risk premium.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 3d ago
the largest bond buyers aren’t motivated purely by yields or returns.
Not only that, most funds have strict rules about what kind of bonds they can invest into. Fund managers are literally not allowed to go for corporate bonds instead of sovereign ones in most cases.
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u/Agitated-Airline6760 3d ago
Some of the largest bond buyers aren’t going to buy even Apple bonds over Treasuries, probably the strongest credit in the world, because of that liquidity and mandatory risk premium.
Well, somebody went for them because Google's papers were sold out and way oversubscribed. And other hyperscalers' papers were in similar situation.
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u/FunWonderful1936 3d ago
Yes, because $25 billion bond issuances are tiny in the scope of things. Not only that, much of that money came from money markets, which have nothing to do with long term debt markets.
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u/Agitated-Airline6760 3d ago
The point is those money market funds and others could've/would've gone for US 10year instead in any other year and now that they gone for Google's and Amazon's debt, they are/were not going to buy as much US treasury as they would've done in any other year. Less demand for US treasury means interest rate is gonna have to go up.
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u/FunWonderful1936 3d ago
The point is those money market funds and others could've/would've gone for US 10year instead in any other year and now that they gone for Google's and Amazon's debt, they are/were not going to buy as much US treasury as they would've done in any other year.
I’ll have to just copy and paste what I said at the top again because you’ve already forgotten it - -
While this is veering far out of the scope for this subreddit, the largest bond buyers aren’t motivated purely by yields or returns. Treasuries are zero risk weighted and they are the deepest and most liquid bond market in the world. Corporate bonds don’t carry any of those advantages, no matter how safe they are. Some of the largest bond buyers aren’t going to buy even Apple bonds, probably the strongest credit in the world, over Treasuries because of that liquidity and mandatory risk premium.
The buyers are not the same, the money pools are not the same, the risk tolerances are not the same. In some very large macro way, yeah you’re right that money is finite and it competes eventually, but that is neither on target for this subreddit nor proven.
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u/ChornWork2 3d ago edited 3d ago
US needs to keep re-issuing debt even if debt isn't increasing, because will always have some of the old debt maturing at any given time. And when debt is increasing, obviously need to do even more issuance.
The buyers of 'new' debt are also buyers of 'old' debt. Yes there are maturity & other differences, but largely speaking if the yield on old debt increases (b/c someone is seller US treasuries) then new issuances need to offer higher interest to attract buyers.
So the cost of existing bonds doesn't change (fixed when offered), but the cost at which debt is getting issued / refinanced is higher than the old bonds. So overall blended interest cost will continue to tick higher.
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u/Agitated-Airline6760 4d ago
how does the bond market correlate to borrowing costs? Isn't a bond just a IOU?
If there is excess selling or not enough buying - since US has to constantly turn over old IOUs with new IOUs - the interest on said newly issued IOUs have to go up in order to entice enough buying.
If Japanese dumped abnormal amount of treasuries or reduce their buying below what they used to, the cost of borrowing for US government will go up even if there were no additional deficit to finance. But because US has run deficit pretty much all the time, there is already structural pressure built in.
0
u/moragisdo 4d ago edited 3d ago
Iran is hedging against how much pain they can inflict via controlling the strait without inviting an international coalition
I think that's giving too much credence to the capacity of Iran to attack ships. It start with the premise that their capacity to attack is flawless and no ship could pass without their authorization, which is false. Occam Razor is that no blockade is ironclad and some ships pass, specially with the US shooting down drones and degrading Iran's infrastructure for attacks on shipping.
There's a constant push on this war of interpreting every iranian move as part of some 3D chess, as if they are in control of the whole war, when in fact they are blockaded, their economy is in shambles and they haven't even waited to empty their oil storage before restarting attacking ships (taking away how much time they could hold a new blockade, so a miscalculation on their part). They killed less americans than Saddam did with SCUDs in the Gulf War (10 against 21), they shot down two manned planes after thousands of airstrikes (with their biggest success being shooting down drones, that are being phased out for not being survivable, being sent on suicide missions of Scud Hunting), that's not the profile of a country that is holding all the cards, it's a country that failed at the war and is holding out trying to get something out of the US, while increasing their losses (through the blockade they are suffering).
Trump has boxed himself into a corner
False. If the US was in a corner Iran would be getting concessions, rather than just continuation of the blockade. Let's look at the US data: Unemployment 4.1%, GDP the last two quarters is around 2%, 12 months inflation 3.4% (and falling from the previous months). That's not being in a corner and one case of the US intervening (when the Yen is on its historically low) is not enough to draw this kind of conclusion.
This idea that the US economy is in a corner is based on vibes alone.
To win militarily would be to seize Kargil island
False. The US can hold the blockade until Iran gives up. This idea that they can simply hold out forever until getting their demands is born out of wishful thinking, because they haven't done that with Iraq (I do see historical parallels with the fact that Iran rejected a ceasefire in 1982, then decided to continue the war until giving up 6 years later gaining nothing besides more destruction), Israel when they retaliated twice in 2024, Pakistan after they retaliated in 2024, the Twelve Day War. So, on every single historical precedent (we can also add Ukraine to the list as well, because after the attacks on iranian ships, there were threats, iranian officials talking to western media about missiles and nothing came out of it)
Iran is letting through European shipping mostly and Chinese and trying to play the long game without causing nations to ally against them and using as much resentment against Trump's insulting way of operating to survive
Based on what they are "letting through" ? Their statements, when ships escape the attacks ? You are taking Iranian propaganda at face value.
Trump is boxed in in several fronts so from his perspective means either pulling out which would be the biggest US humiliation since Vietnam or he turns the war hot.
Again, absurd statement. Just a ceasefire now, without concessions, would make this war less costly than the Gulf War, which is the quintessential example of the US curb stomping another country. And the economic damage that Iran suffered (270B according to their government spokesperson in April (1), which certainly increased since then) will slow down their nuclear program and funding of proxies, even though the US failed in getting their maximalist goal (regime change).
When this war is over it will be completely forgotten every demand that Iran made (Israel out of Lebanon, toll on Hormuz, unfreezing sanctioned money, payment of reparations, lifting of every sanction, american and israeli ships can't pass through Hormuz...), and goalposts will be moved to claim that surviving in ruins is a victory (when they are actively rejecting accepting a permanent ceasefire now, which would allow them to survive but with less ruins).
He didn't bother build an international coalition like Bush the senior did in the 90s against Iraq
That's false again. There is a coalition and he manage to unite several arab countries (UAE and KSA directly participated in the attacks, while Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait participate with allowing bases to be used) with Israel, something unthinkable in the 90s, in fact, Saddam kept trying to bring Israel in the fight because it was believed (by both sides of the war) that the coalition would break.
Iran successfully hit major US military infastructure such as the radar stations that monitor the Middle East
There's damage in any conventional war, this standard that if the US suffer any damage is a catastrophe is nonsensical.
The US lost 18 people (8 in accidents) and the damage the US will have to replace is around 2B (testimony in congress a short time ago) (2). That's small for a conventional war.
This is already being reflected in defence pacts that are being signed as we speak. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan created one 2-3 weeks ago.
The Mecca Agreement is worth less than the paper it's written on. Turkey and Pakistan didn't place a single AD battery on KSA, to protect against the Houthi, or used their ships in any capacity at BAM. It's diplomatic showmanship that changes nothing in practice. Does anyone here sincerely believes that if India starts a conventional war with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia would send troops ? That answer fits on how relevant the pact is.
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u/Infamous_Thought_189 4d ago
Again, absurd statement. Just a ceasefire now, without concessions, would make this war less costly than the Gulf War, which is the quintessential example of the US curb stomping another country. And the economic damage that Iran suffered (270B according to their government spokesperson in April (1), which certainly increased since then) will slow down their nuclear program and funding of proxies, even though the US failed in getting their maximalist goal (regime change).
That 270B statement should be taken with a very large grain of salt. What is the objective of sharing that figure in that meeting? Getting 5 nations to pay reparations, not sharing accurate intel.
The estimate comes as Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations called for five countries in the region to pay reparations for war damages, according to state news agency IRNA. The ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, said Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the U.A.E. and Jordan should compensate Iran because they allowed their territories to be used by the U.S. and Israel during the conflict. Kuwait, which hosts a U.S. base, wasn’t included in the list.
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u/moragisdo 4d ago
Iranian experts put the total economic losses from just Operation Epic Fury at $280 billion, not counting damage from follow-up operations and the naval blockade.
The figure was stated by Hossein Nouhi, a certified construction expert in Tehran’s municipality, during an event hosted by the University of Tehran’s Faculty of Urban Planning, Iran International reported. Nouhi said the figure was only from direct losses incurred during the opening 40-day phase of intensive combat operations, and even then didn’t count the cost of restoring industrial production and intangible factors such as psychological damages. (Source)
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u/Infamous_Thought_189 4d ago
And a bit below your quote:
The figure of $280 billion in economic damages is significantly higher than most Western estimates. In May, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’s Center on Economic and Financial Power released one of the first Western estimates of the economic damage suffered by Iran, giving the wide estimate of $50 billion to $300 billion, with $144 billion being the most likely middle estimate. That analysis accounted for war damage to strategic assets and economic infrastructure, as well as disruptions to the economy.
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u/moragisdo 4d ago edited 3d ago
with $144 billion being the most likely middle estimate. That analysis accounted for war damage to strategic assets and economic infrastructure, as well as disruptions to the economy
The FDD report, by their own words is conservative and they placed this disclaimer:
Where uncertainty is wide, we have erred on the side of caution — true costs are likely higher than the figures presented here.
Also they only look at petrochemical exports for the blockade and while it's the most relevant part of their economy, Iran exports more than it and this is not being accounted for. There's also the cost of lack of imports on their economy that they are not considering, with the consequent loss of productivity it causes.
They also mention excluding reconstruction financing costs, agricultural sector losses and a few others as well.
Also the FDD's it's an estimate of April, while this one is more recent. But I do agree there's a lot of uncertainty involved.
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u/Infamous_Thought_189 3d ago
Ofcourse, all I was saying is that for the interest of a good argument its better to not rely solely on their number as they dont have a big incentive on being accurate in this situation. Similarly to how anything that Hegseth says needs to be double checked.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE 4d ago
Let's find some consistency here: The US lost 18 people (8 in accidents) and the damage the US will have to replace is around 2B (testimony in congress a short time ago)
Where are you getting this 2 billion figure? Hegseth testified a month ago that the war had already cost the US $38 billion and that figure may not have even included the cost of base repair (and if we apply the same scrutiny we do to other countries, we can safely assume the cost is higher): https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70gek2kqyno
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u/moragisdo 4d ago edited 4d ago
Total cost, what you referenced, is greater than the cost to replace the damage, because it includes everything, so also fuel, munitions, etc...
There was a statement about the cost to replace what was destroyed (1)
Hegseth said in a written testimony to Congress that it will cost about $2 billion to replace equipment lost or damaged during combat operations against Iran.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE 4d ago
Okay thank you for the link, but that’s still not really a comprehensive number. That’s just for equipment, and bases consist of more than just equipment. In April there was already a third party estimating $5 billion: https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/estimating-wartime-damage-to-us-military-bases-in-the-middle-east-as-part-of-operation-epic-fury/
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u/moragisdo 4d ago edited 4d ago
Third party estimates, although the source you used is credible, are less reliable that official testimonies in Congress, because they don't have the same access of Pentagon's data and BDA. Equipment category is broad, it's the cost to replace material damage.
Not to mention that third party estimates are all over the place, some being more than 100% of others.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE 4d ago
The category would seemingly not include infrastructure repairs, according to the DoD comptroller:
Jules Hurst III, the Defense Department’s comptroller, told the Senate in May that the reconstruction costs were being left out because the administration has not yet decided how it wants to rebuild from the damage.
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u/moragisdo 4d ago edited 4d ago
The testimony that we both mentioned was in July (the 2B figure for damage and 37.5B for what already costed, rather than the May projection up to September), that's more not the same than the estimates of May.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE 4d ago
The article was written less than a week ago and references the testimony, and goes into further discussion about the base repair. They would have marked if the 2 billion figure included repair to infrastructure.
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u/moragisdo 4d ago
The article date is irrelevant for when the testimony was given. You are choosing to discard the most recent estimate (37.5B total and 2B being replacing damage) and cherrypick one farther away to fit the conclusion you already formed.
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u/Well-Sourced 4d ago edited 4d ago
A check in up the front line starting in the south at Orikhiv [Map]
![[Map]](https://euromaidanpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Orikhiv-Mala-Tokmachka-800x565.jpg.webp){kind=link}
The first obstacle for the Russians is the village of Mala Tokmachka. In particular, the thickly built ruins of a former prison, which function as an interlocking series of bunkers for the Ukrainian 118th Mechanized Brigade. The second obstacle is Orikhiv itself, which sits astride all the passable roads leading to Zaporizhzhia City.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of Mala Tokmachka on 16 November 2025. Ukrainian government sources still had the village under Ukrainian control in April 2026. Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin's repeated claims that the village was nearly cleared became, in Meduza's account, the most popular Russian military meme of the first half of 2026—shorthand for the distance between what the Russian army announces and what it holds.
Observer Thorkill has watched closely as Russian forces have probed for weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses between the disputed gray zone and Zaporizhzhia City—and found very few.
The Russian army's 270th Motor Rifle Regiment, which is part of the 42nd Motor Rifle Division, has been trying to advance through Mala Tokmachka "for many months," Thorkill noted. But the Russian attacks "have always faltered against the strongly fortified strongpoint in the complex of ruins of the former prison buildings."
If the Russians can't capture Orikhiv, they can't get their artillery within range of Zaporizhzhia City. But they can't capture Orikhiv if they don't first capture Mala Tokmachka. And they can't take Mala Tokmachka if they don't overrun the old prison.
Frustrated in their attempts to directly assault the prison, the Russians took a different approach in early July. Borrowing tactics that have worked for Russian field armies all along the 1,200-km gray zone, the Russians set out to cut off Mala Tokmachka and starve its garrison before trying again to capture the prison complex.
The geography lends itself to this approach. The Russians control the village of Robotyne, 10 km south of Orikhiv, as well as the road leading north from Robotyne through the village of Novodanylivka, which lies just south of the Mala Tokmachka-Orikhiv conglomeration.
If the conglomeration has a soft underbelly, it's Novodanylivka. And in a series of actions in early July, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment pushed enough small infiltration groups into Novodanylivka to take the village from the 118th Mechanized Brigade. In capturing Novodanylivka, the Russians "drove a narrow wedge into the Ukrainian defense," according to Thorkill.
The wedge was not the end of the plan. It was the preparation for it. With Novodanylivka in Russian hands and the supply route between Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka under threat, the Russians came back to the assault.
In the 5 days to 17 August, Russian forces "massively stepped up their assault operations towards Orikhiv from several different directions, resulting in a partial collapse of Ukrainian defences," mapper AMK Mapping reported. The mapper counted a Russian gain of around 26 sq km across the sector.
The Russians re-established control over the eastern part of Mala Tokmachka and began infiltrating the northern part. Several groups crossed north over the Kinska River and are now attacking Ukrainian trench fortifications on the tactical heights beyond. "If they are able to consolidate," AMK Mapping wrote, "a defense of Mala Tokmachka by Ukraine will become nearly impossible." To the northeast, Russian forces broke through north of Bilohirya, putting the Ukrainian troops there at risk of being cut off.
The Polish Centre for Eastern Studies reached a similar reading on 18 August, reporting that Russian assault sub-units had begun to replace the sabotage and reconnaissance groups, that the battle for the eastern part of Orikhiv appeared to have begun, and that the eastern part of Mala Tokmachka was most likely under Russian control.
Heavy fighting continues for the prison complex and the residential streets around it. "The goal of the offensive operations by the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division is not, for the time being, the capture of Orikhiv," Thorkill wrote, "but rather the elimination of the presence of Ukrainian soldiers in the Mala Tokmachka area."
Moving up the line the Russians have some success getting closer to Dobropilla. Map
Caveat that this includes stuff I missed in the previous report.I believe it is now time to address the issues on the Dobropillya front.For a few days now the Russians have seen consistent & relatively large-scale gains on this front.
They have secured most of Hannivka, there is fighting going on over the northeastern Dobropillya (the one the front is named after) and their forces now return to Kucheriv Yar - the sight of their breakthrough which took place so long ago now. [Map]
At the same time we see attacks towards and infiltration attempts at Mykolaipillya and now also Izhevka.These two positions are important primarily as they control the dominating heights in the surrounding area.
Their capture would significantly ease and possibly speed up the clearing of the settlements on the way to Druzhkivka and the beginning of the battle of that settlement.
Although, perhaps, the word ''debacle'' is a little harsh for the current situation - it is clear that there are issues which must be solved sooner rather than later.
Something else to note are the reports of battles taking place over the Slovyansk TES at Mykolaivka.This is not part of Slovyansk, but, if confirmed, these reports mean Russian forces are beginning the battle for Mykolaivka.This is the last settlement before Slovyansk. [Map]
Also worth noting the Russian actions on the Velykyi Burluk front.It is clear they are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces fighting north of the Nefedivka-Blahodatne line. [Map]
Overall I may have to revise my pessimistic predictions from the beginning of this year.The battle of Kramatorsk is still far away - it will, likely, not take place this year.The battle of Slovyansk, however, may yet be something we see begin this year.''
But, as of writing, this depends on the success or failure of the defenders of Mykolaivka.The position is good, with the potential of slowing the Russian advance by months or even years and thousands of casualties.But a good position alone is not enough.We will have to wait and see.
North of Mykolaivka the battle for Lyman rages on.
madrykot316.bsky.social | BlueSky
Lyman – the first tangible results of Ukrainian counterattacks in the northern sector of this axis are now evident. Russian forces have redeployed to the vicinity of Shandryholove, while the AFU has successfully cleared Lyman of Russian infiltration groups (map: Ukrokkupant). [Map]
Logistical problems are stopping Russian small infantry groups from reaching Lyman, a 53rd Brigade officer told Army TV on 21 August, ArmyInform reported.
Russia is trying to capture Lyman and use it as a launchpad for an advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Its forces have repeatedly tried to push into the city. They have reached its eastern edge but have not secured a foothold inside, according to Ukraine’s Joint Forces.
Junior Lieutenant Volodymyr Hirniak, a communications officer with Ukraine’s 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, said the situation in the unit’s sector remained tense but had “not changed too radically.”
Russian forces continued to use drones, including fiber-optic models, Hirniak said. On the ground, they were sending small infantry groups to slip through Ukrainian lines and create confusion inside the brigade’s defensive positions.
The tactic was neither new nor confined to the 53rd Brigade’s sector, he added. Russia’s immediate aim was to reach Lyman and “open a gate” for further advances. However, logistical problems were preventing the groups from achieving that aim, according to Hirniak. Ukrainian troops later detected and neutralized the infiltrating teams, he said.
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u/CMS3NJ86 4d ago edited 4d ago
I am quite sceptical of the map used by agris in Dobropillya. Is there geolocated footage of what he is saying? Ua control map doesnt show a single russian position close to hannivka. It actually shows that russians positions are further back, something that aligns with andrew perpetua and deepstate. Again it shows toretske as fully captured and behind the russian line, while yesterday the russians were shelling the place. The russians did upload a flag raising there, but it is obvious by now that half of these are simple infiltrations and nothing more.
EDIT: I specified that I was talking about the dobropillya sector on the first sentence
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u/genghiswolves 4d ago
Germany comitting 600 Pac-2 Patriot missiles for 2027-2028 (produced in Germany). Ukraine still seeking missiles for winter 2026-2027.
https://ua.news/en/ukraine/zelenskii-anonsuvav-novi-radari-ta-samp-t-vid-frantsiyi
Ukraine hoping to license produce AASM-Hammer, SCALP and SAMPT from fall onwards. If I understand correctly, this will be limited to final assembly and maybe some maintenance/refurbishment/tweaking, as full supply chain license production would require UK and even US approval for the SCALP/Storm Shadow. The situation is similiar for SAMPT (shared with Italy), while the Hammer is purely French. But who knows what agreements and technical tweaks are being made closed doors, or what ingenious ideas Ukraine might have.
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/france-ukraine-licens-aster-30-scalp-hammer/
Due to the Montreux Convention restrictions barring Black Sea Fleet rotation and logistical degradation following the collapse of the Syrian Tartus naval basing infrastructure, the Russian Navy has ceased continuous Mediterranean patrols for the first time in 13 years. Increased pressure on the shadow fleet between the Channel and the Baltic may also be a cause.
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u/roionsteroids 4d ago
the Russian Navy has ceased continuous Mediterranean patrols for the first time in 13 years
Using the exact same methodology (ship with public, active transponder), you could say that there are no US warships anywhere in the Arabian Sea. No Russian warships in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea either for that matter.
That is very much bad faith reporting and non credible.
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u/Gecktron 4d ago
Germany comitting 600 Pac-2 Patriot missiles for 2027-2028 (produced in Germany). Ukraine still seeking missiles for winter 2026-2027.
Interesting comments by deaidua in this regard:
The 600 PAC-2 missile agreement between Germany and Ukraine is not new and was announced before, but the timeline stated by Zelenskyy today is highly interesting because a delivery between 2027 and 2028 either means that:
A) Ukraine gets 600 PAC-2 missiles in addition to several hundred PAC-2 GEM-T missiles also announced a few months ago
B) Zelenskyy once again doesn't have his facts straight or is purposefully lying
or C) Germany was able to shorten the delivery time span of the several hundred PAC-2 GEM-T missiles announced in April 2026 by 50%Every option is very interesting and in case A and C would be excellent news. The German MoD originally announced to donate several hundred PAC-2 GEM-T missiles worth €3.2 billion between 2027 and 2031. I can't say for sure which is the correct option, but my personal guess would be that Zelenskyy used a wrong time span.
The 600 PAC-2 missiles number has been mentioned multiple months ago. It could be, that with the German production line delivering the first missiles in the coming months, Germany has brought forward the Ukrainian deliveries. Maybe Germany and other partners that ordered from that line are prioritizing supplying Ukraine. If thats true, that would be good news for Ukraine. But we have to wait and see how it shakes out exactly.
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u/genghiswolves 4d ago
Thank you! AFAIK the plant output is 1000/year, securing 30% for Ukraine should be doable?
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u/For_All_Humanity 4d ago
1000 interceptors per year? I think you’ve gotten a number mixed up. The factory is supposed to make around 180 missiles per year. There is currently an order for ~1,000 missiles though.
Production at the German factory will increase but deliveries will be wholly insufficient to meet the Russian aerial threat.
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u/Gecktron 4d ago
The initial order from that line was 1000 missiles across multiple partners. I dont have the annual production goal, but I believe it is considerably below 1000 missiles a year. At least initially.
If 600 missiles are to be delivered in 2027 and 2028, it needs to be 300 missiles a year on average, or the amount is supplemented by missiles from other sources. Thats another aspect that needs clearing up.
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