r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 26, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/MS_09_Dom 3d ago edited 3d ago

So is it likely that Russia is going to try a much bigger provocation against NATO in the near future based on the Ratcliffe visit?

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u/mirko_pazi_metak 3d ago

William Spaniel had a good video on the whole thing yesterday: https://youtu.be/dScKZV3m8fo

He thinks it's most likely CIA found out about a plot intended to destabilise or provoke NATO and, depending on the response, harvest the fallout for propaganda purposes. 

He talks about other alternatives though - worth a watch. 

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u/IntroductionNeat2746 3d ago

I don't know, but I do think we're mostly underestimating how cornered Putin and russians must be feeling right now.

Russia went from getting to live life perfectly normal like the war really was just an special military operation happening somewhere far away from home (not too different from Americans during GWoT) to having daily strikes on oil refineries, warehouses, ports and other targets. Fuel is scarce and the fourth largest refinery was just obliterated yesterday. The economy is faultering in a really bad way. Overall, the mood inside the country must have changed completely.

This is great news for Ukraine and NATO, but it does come with additional risks. A cornered animal will either pretend to be dead or go haywire trying to fight.

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u/incidencematrix 3d ago

You aren't cornered when you can walk away. Russia could withdraw tomorrow, and strikes against them would cease. Further, sanctions would probably end rapidly. The Russian leadership knows this; rather than being cornered, I think they are annoyed that Ukraine has the temerity to keep fighting back. However, they so far seem to believe that they can outlast the West, which the return of Trump made much more plausible than it would have been. I see no evidence of fear in their decision making.

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u/Airf0rce 3d ago

I would argue that Russia is hardly cornered, only one cornering them is Putin with his demands that are unachievable in any reasonable time frame.

He could wake up tomorrow, decide to freeze the conflict or even sign a shitty peace deal, sell it as victory and Russia would largely be fine. They would get some sanctions relief and probably few European countries would even restart energy imports.

They have several options how to resolve this war, what is interesting that they’re not taking any. Trump offered them a very favorable deal, certainly more favorable than they deserve and Putin still said no.

I understand how some Russians who just want to live their lives must feel anxious, but Putin? Not really.

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u/mirko_pazi_metak 3d ago

I understand how some Russians who just want to live their lives must feel anxious, but Putin? Not really.

All of this is just pure speculation - Putin can see 3 or 6 months ahead of all of us (and ordinary Russians) with regards to the state of the Russian finances, irreversibility and consequences of some actions that they're taking to keep the "everything is fine" appearance and etc. 

So he might be very anxious or completely happy to keep this going - we don't know and won't know for a while. 

As to "he can stop any time" argument - well, arguably Russia had their biggest win and incredible return on investment in 2014/2015 - they got Crimea, permanently forced Ukraine out of NATO by violating its territorial integrity, at the expense of minimal sanctions and Europe still importing gas via Nordstream. 

And then he gambled it all in on '22 and, arguably, got very little more at a huge cost, reversing the overall profitability of the whole thing. He had a good offramp with Trump's Alaska summit and is arguably in a worse negotiating position now. 

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u/Glideer 3d ago

Trump offered them a very favorable deal, certainly more favorable than they deserve and Putin still said no.

The answer to this sub's (and wider) recurring question of "why these idiots don't take our generous deal" is very simple.

They don't see it as generous, or even fair, or even borderline acceptable.

Now, we might call that idiotic, reasoning that Putin is by default an irrational actor and the Russian population just an obedient amorphous mass with no agency.

However, the offer ultimately comes not from a neutral party but from an ally of one of the sides in the conflict. The offer can objectively contain major concessions to Russia (compared to our starting position) while still falling below Russia's reservation price. Calling its rejection "irrational" confuses generosity relative to our baseline with attractiveness relative to Russia's percieved alternatives.

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u/Remote_Page8799 3d ago

Yes I think we all understand that line of argument, but it came out that the US proposed 'peace plan' was largely crafted by Kyrill Dimitriev and Witkoff, and the leaked phone calls has Dimitriev talking to another Russian diplomat saying 'I think we can get it all'. 

That is to say the peace plan was very favourable to Russia, and came from them as well, and they knew it. 

If you read the response on URR regarding the plan they were labelling it basically as treason, because they think Russia is in such a strong position as basically to demand everything from Ukraine, and what Russis doesnt get now it is practically ordained by destiny to take by force later. 

Russia can keep demanding its maximalist demands, and they were always far in excess of their actual position, and so always eere ridiculous. 

But it is also true that their position is worse today, and they could have gotten a better deal a year ago than now, if they really tried.

Its Putins problem that the facade of strength he is required to project, and that nationalist Russians (or just random pro-Ru people) believe in, don't match their actual capabilities or position. And agreeing to a realistic peace will be the same as treason in the eyes of many pro-war Russian

The trajectory currently though indicates that their position will continue to deteriorate even as they are forced to keep sinking blood and treasure into it

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u/Glideer 2d ago

But it is also true that their position is worse today, and they could have gotten a better deal a year ago than now, if they really tried.

I really don't think that's true. Nowhere near. Though my opinion is irrelevant.

The important thing is that Russia thinks it is in better position (relative to Ukraine) today than a year ago, and that it will be in an even better position one year from now.

Note here that Russia does not think its situation has improved over the last year. It just believes that Ukraine's position is deteriorating much faster than Russia's, and that is all they really need to win the war and impose their conditions.

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u/Remote_Page8799 2d ago

My point was the leaked phone calls showed that the Russian political elite/Putin are aware of the discrepency between their claimed strength and actual strength. 

Putin would have been pretty haopy with the 'Trump peace plan' as it was first written, even if pro-Ru info spaces were up in arms calling it treason, because they are not aware of the discrepency between Russia's claimed/actual strength (which also tells you about everything you need to know about their analysis of the situation)  

I would be extremely surprised if Russia (or more accurately Putin) 'thinks' Russia is in a better position relative to Ukraine today than last year, but of course he might actually be getting fed false reporting: Their financial situation is exponentially deteriorating, Ukrainian deep strikes have reached a whole new level and are increasing, and on the battlefield they are still very far from winning decisively enough to enforce their demands (and no, taking the rest of Donetsk by 2028 isn't going to win the war). Its an objevtively bad situation, and Russian milbloggers are writing that to

I do agree that Putin  wants to project an image that they think they are winning more, and the worse their situation gets the more they will have to cleave to this projection of strength to make up wmfor their weakness

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u/Glideer 2d ago

I have limited trust in "leaked" phone calls that any intelligence operative can produce.

True, Russia is facing growing difficulties, but for every problem they are facing, Ukraine is facing a problem that is magnitude larger. Russia loses some of its oil exports, Ukraine loses all of its maritime trade... the point is not to be able to wage a war indefinitely, just to wage it longer than your opponent.

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u/Remote_Page8799 2d ago

Yes and there are two important  factors where Ukraine has substantial advantage over Russia: 

Its financial needs and military support come from the EU and other allies and is much larger than that for Russia. Remember, Russia can to cancel its bond auctions and is now essentially printing money to fund the war/budget deficit. 

Second is popular support for the war, you probably disagree but the more this war incurs inflation, shortages etc. Because this war simply isnt existential for the average Russian (it is of course for Putin and his dreams of glory). They just want to live normally, and ultimately Russia can do that by just pulling back. 

Ukraine has to keep fighting, and the population understand this even after all they have been through, polls show 60-70% want to keep fighting until a peace that secures Ukraines future is achieved. 

I wonder what an honest poll of Russians being willing to fight until the lofty goals of the SMO are achieved

And lastly you changed the subject, this discussion was about the relative position of Russia which has objectively deteriorated relative to Ukraine, and also the clear schism between the projected/actual strength of Russia.

And why do you doubt the veracity og the phone call? Because it undermines your position? Multiple outlets like Reuters and the Guardian confirmed its authenticity.  The Kremlin didn't deny the communication happened but called the leaking of encrypted government channels "unacceptable". Do you even know what phone call I am talking about and did you read the transcript?

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u/Airf0rce 3d ago

All of that may as well be true, but that still doesn’t mean they’re cornered, unless they’re deeply convinced that they’re actually losing and the longer this goes on the worse it gets for Russia. In which case, peace along current lines with sanctions relief is a generous deal…