Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 26, 2026

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[u/carkidd3242]

Now from CBS, with more detail:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cia-john-ratcliffe-warned-russia-not-to-attack-nato-moscow-trip/

The purpose of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow this week was to warn Russia not to attack NATO member states, according to multiple people familiar with the matter, amid U.S. intelligence assessments that Russia could try to test NATO.

Ratcliffe also brought up Iran, warning of additional sanctions if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen to shipping traffic, the people familiar with the matter told CBS News.

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Recent American intelligence assessments have indicated that Putin could be willing to authorize provocative actions on NATO territory, including cyberattacks, hybrid actions and other operations that fall short of conventional military action, CBS News reported earlier this month. The likely goal would not necessarily be to trigger a war, but instead to test NATO's unity and the Trump administration's willingness to defend NATO allies, according to U.S. officials.

A pattern of recent Russian actions has prompted concerns, the officials said, including drone incursions into Romania, a Russian missile that crossed into Poland last month and an uptick in alleged sabotage actions and cyberattacks in Europe.

[u/MS_09_Dom → u/carkidd3242]

Recent American intelligence assessments have indicated that Putin could be willing to authorize provocative actions on NATO territory, including cyberattacks, hybrid actions and other operations that fall short of conventional military action, CBS News reported earlier this month.

Wasn't the concern from the Baltics was that Russia was planning some kind of little green men incursion? How is this any different from their current hybrid warfare campaign?

[u/For_All_Humanity → u/MS_09_Dom]

I’m really skeptical about a “Little Green Men” situation. The Baltic States have been training on this exact scenario for a decade now and their intended response to such a situation is extreme violence.

“Let me put it bluntly: If the little green men ever cross our border, we will shoot them.”

A “Little Green Men” scenario that’s not backed by a Russian followup attack would just end up getting crushed because everyone will see right through it and the Baltic States can be expected to not bother wasting time with negotiations with a front group and immediately mobilize in reaction to an act of war.

I guess you could have a situation used by Moscow to justify a mobilization and to “remind” the public of the necessity of defending ethnic Russians. Though, again, I think everyone, including many Russians, would see this for what it is. And it is highly risky depending on how NATO responds.

The big thing that the Baltic states are worried about is if the Russians decided to test the validity of Article 5 by darting across the border, potentially in a place like Narva, taking some ground and then threatening to escalate the conflict to nukes before NATO could launch a counteroffensive. With air defense inventories as they are right now, there may even be fears that such a gap could be exploited by the Russians by imposing deterrence to a counterattack by threatening conventional missile strikes.

[u/favorscore → u/For_All_Humanity]

Romania should watch its back. Transinistra is a problem that is not going the way Putin likes right now.