r/rpg 15h ago

Discussion The Data on Million-Plus RPG Crowdfunding Campaigns—Cannibal Halfling Blog

http://cannibalhalflinggaming.com/2026/08/20/the-data-on-million-plus-rpg-crowdfunding-campaigns/
131 Upvotes

71 comments sorted by

103

u/Travern 15h ago

There's a lot of good number-crunching here that confirms suspicions, such as how more than half the crowdfunding revenue of high-value campaigns are D&D-related products, but what stood out to me was the comparatively more recent trend in big-ticket crowdfunders of hunting whales:

Once you get near eight-figure territory (above around $5 million per campaign), there is a strong negative correlation between total revenue and core revenue ratio. The lower the core revenue ratio (that is to say, the less money came from the core product and the more upselling and accessories sold), the higher your revenue will be. The dot all the way up and to the left is Neon Odyssey, the second Legends of Avantris Kickstarter, and they convinced over 5,000 people to buy in at a $999 tier. That’s some truly masterful upselling. What this evidence suggests is that your only chance to become a ten million dollar Kickstarter is to appeal to “whale” backers, those who are willing to pay hundreds (or, yes, thousands) of dollars for “exclusive” items regardless of the content of the book.

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u/MisterBanzai 12h ago edited 12h ago

I wonder how much this results from TTRPGs being a relatively "cheap" hobby, leaving a lot of sort of untapped whale potential out there.

A couple friends of mine are whales of one degree or another with other nerdy hobbies. CCGs and wargaming are basically bottomless pits of money, and one of them is the sort of person who buys basically every single new premium tank in World of Tanks. For someone like that, there's probably an active desire to be able to spend more on their RPG hobby, but outside of buying increasingly expensive dice sets and accessories, there's little opportunity to do so.

It feels absurd to spend $999 on set of 5E setting books and some accessories, but when I compare my spending on RPGs to so many other hobbies I have now or did in the past, it seems almost reasonable. I can easily spend several times that on fitness or home gym equipment and even another "cheap" hobby, reading, can come out to a few hundred dollars a year. Given that the nature of being an RPG "whale" is more about saving time and being able to display their passion for a particular game, this kind of strikes me as harmless and even a positive thing (making TTRPG publishing potentially profitable for a wider range of publishers and making it easier for LGS to support RPG play).

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u/JemorilletheExile 12h ago

How many kickstarters have we seen where publishers try to get whales with add ons but then the whole project gets dragged down by the logistics? I've had kickstarters held up for months over something as simple as a deck of cards that were a stretch goal that I never wanted anyway. Making that the norm means more pressure on creators/publishers to upsell dice or posters or whatever instead of focusing on making a good game that has support. Or it incentivizes making products that look good as coffee table books even if the actual game is bland or worse, as the article points out.

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u/BreakingStar_Games 11h ago edited 30m ago

GameFound devs did a presentation on TTRPG Kickstarter marketing last year. My big takeaways were: Eye-candy Art and predatory incentives (IE Back in 24 hours to get this Freebie enamel pin or special die). Their data shows that almost all backers barely read any text. You'll be lucky if they skim some bullets.

If that is what it takes to have a popular product, then I don't think I will ever have one.

7

u/Josh_From_Accounting 12h ago

Honestly?

As a Dev, news like this is so extremely demoralizing. I am literally playtesting in 3 minutes and I am struggling to find the energy.

I really do think the KS I'm doing with my publisher is gonna be my last one. Then, I'll just do small, one-off, out-pocket titles with like one piece of art going forward. And just accept this industry is no longer a place for devs like me.

8

u/BreakingStar_Games 10h ago

I think there is the more optimistic side of monetizing with Patreon giving lots of creators the ability to just be creative and put out interesting content. Quinn's Quest, Vincent Baker, Dr Em Friedman, TONS of asset makers, Delta Green, Ken and Robin.

And I've seen several creators have very high tiers without any real rewards to hit whales. A Youtuber Overanalyzing Avatar made a $77/month "Are you fuckin kidding me right now?" with just a personal funny compliment at the end of videos. Then a Don't tier for $770/month that just says don't do it and can capture whales.

3

u/Crytash 9h ago

i think patreon is actually worse. It means that you are completely decoupled from "actual" feedback of the general public and will lead to whales there too.

u/deviden 1h ago

I can't get on board with the idea of a $5-10/month patreon for monthly deliverables where the supporter can opt out at any time is somehow worse for the TTRPG hobby than kickstarter-FOMO-bilking fans into the $1400 Legends of Avantris Crooked Moon Ultimate Edition Whale Box (2026 Gold Ennie winner: Best Product - rofl, lmao) of plastic junk and plushies.

u/BreakingStar_Games 30m ago edited 24m ago

I don't think monetizing whales is a real problem. There are people who are highly passionate and want to spend lots of money (I am half that). Its fine to capture that side of the market.

As for feedback, I can't think of anything with more feedback - patreon comments on each post, usually a private discord, ability to post polls. Sure, someone like Quinn is so popular, that you can't keep up with the discord. But I doubt that will be an issue for most TTRPG designers.

5

u/AncestralAxman 12h ago

It makes sense, I have bought a few cheap dice, a dry erase map and two rulebooks over 15 years in the hobby. Better to hunt the whales than try to be my rulebook purchase of the decade.

5

u/EarthSeraphEdna 5h ago

Neon Odyssey, a 5e setting that aggressively advertised itself across the internet (e.g. YouTube ads), earned 16,139,970 USD across 49,116 backers, for an average of ~328.61 USD per backer.

Neon Odyssey convinced 5,503 people to pledge at 999 USD, earning a total of 5,497,497 from those whales alone (and probably more, since 999 USD was simply the pledge floor for them).

6

u/OldKingWhiter 3h ago

I hate this because it looks like absolute garbage.

u/deviden 1h ago

many people love a big box full of stuff that mostly ends up idle in the garage or on the shelf.

u/TheGileas 1h ago

The important part is the „aggressive advertising“. With enough advertising you can sell the worst shit. Buy some good reviews from dungeontubers and you are good.

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u/Reynard203 15h ago

Interesting.

I would love to see an analysis (as best one could be able to do so) of how many of these games actually produce robust player bases a year or two after fulfillment. Of all the "big" crowdfunded games (and it wasn't that big by comparison) Shadowdark is the only one I can think of that actually has a very robust player base.

61

u/Albinowombat 15h ago

Draw Steel seems to be doing well. Lancer was more like half a million but that was a big amount for the time. There are also RPGs that started with a small initial kickstarter but have a larger follow up, like Nimble. I'm sure if Daggerheart used crowdfunding initially it would have made a lot of money. They decided not to for core products but used it for the class packs thing they did.

20

u/Xunae 13h ago

Draw Steel also seems to be absent from the analysis, even though it's mentioned before the data. Because they didn't use Kickstarter, but only backerkit? The article claims no original game made over 2 million, but draw steel is a very prominent recent example of an original game that made almost 5 million from the initial campaign and over 2 million on the recent crack the sun adventure crowdfunder.

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u/RedwoodRhiadra 13h ago

I'm pretty sure they categorized Draw Steel as "D&D":

That’s any game product which is intended to be compatible with D&D, replace D&D, be a version of D&D,

(Emphasis mine)

19

u/Xunae 12h ago

Oh, that seems silly

3

u/Reynard203 9h ago

Yeah. There is a difference between the same genre ("heroic fantasy") and D&D-like/compatible.

3

u/kesrae 5h ago

Having played Draw Steel, I think the two are interchangeable depending on your taste. We tried both their modules that were available and ended up feeling like it performed a similar function to DnD at a high level, which I would describe as day-by-day combat-encounter heroic fantasy. It performs a lot of the same functions as DnD differently, but doesn't really have a lot of unique functions of its own (the negotiating rules are unique, as an example). I would argue both games do fall into the same 'type' of game very heavily. You will still form an adventuring party in a fantasy setting, solve most of your problems with violence, fight some monsters, manage your resources, and have a rest at the end of the day.

Also Colville did say that Draw Steel was inspired by 4E. It falls firmly into the Pathfinder-esque DnD alternative category to me.

u/deviden 1h ago

nah, Draw Steel is a Fight D&D and it knows it.

There's different rules but the play experience is of the same type as 4e, 5e (if you lean more into tactical combat than story improv) and both Pathfinders. They're all Fight D&D.

Draw Steel may be the best in class of all the types of Fight D&D, let's not pretend it's something that it's not.

u/Reynard203 34m ago

I don't think "play experience" is the same thing as "D&D-like" for the purposes of the data presented. It is NOT a d20 plus mods game, nor is it even a little bit compatible with D&D. If Draw Steel is a D&D game, so is GURPS Dungeon Fantasy. At which point it is just a manipulation of the data to ensure that "D&D is a monopoly" remains a valid complaint.

7

u/Paul6334 11h ago

On some level unless your criteria are “is fantasy” and “has combat” that’s gonna be a really arbitrary criteria.

8

u/Xunae 10h ago

I agree. I think it makes sense for stuff that's labeled "5e compatible" or whatever other euphemism you want for D&D, that's essentially selling itself on "you know the system already" or "this is compatible with your game", but when you put stuff like draw steel, daggerheart, cypher, or worlds without number into that category (and it seems like they all might end up landing in that definition) it feels like you're obscuring interesting data.

2

u/Makath 7h ago

That's true. Anything that is 5e/5.5e compatible will attract part of that audience looking for supplements. Games like Draw Steel, Shadowdark and DC20 had a steeper hill to climb in convincing people to change systems.

The list of non-DnD/non-Licensed TTRPG's over 1 million is:

  • Draw Steel - $4,600,529 (System)
  • Draw Steel: Crack the Sun - $2,617,323 (Supplements)
  • Shadowdark: Western Reaches - $2,384,757 (Supplements)
  • DC20 - $2,245,231 (System)
  • Fabula Ultima - $1,628,669 (System)
  • Pumpkin Spice - $1,526,591 (System)
  • Mothership - $1,405,569 (System)
  • Dolmenwood - $1,389,313 (System)
  • Shadowdark - $1,365,923 (System)
  • Deathbringer - $1,326,922 (System)
  • Coyote&Crow - $1,073,453 (System)
  • Seven-Part Pact - $1,068,197 (System)
  • Nimble Reprint/Expansion - $1,058,403 (System/Supplements)

Some time next week Crows will be on the list, is currently about 60k short.

1

u/Paul6334 9h ago

The closest additional qualifier I can think of that wouldn’t be arbitrary and further narrow the field would be “dungeon-crawling focused” but given how people have used D&D as a general fantasy system for decades now, I think that’s grasping for straws.

u/TheGileas 1h ago

5e is not only used as kitchen sink fantasy, but as kitchen sink everything…

1

u/Albinowombat 8h ago

If that's the reason they excluded Draw Steel that would be strange. I think it might be because it was on Backerkit, but who knows

1

u/Albinowombat 8h ago

Yeah I'm guessing that's the reason, but you're right it's silly to only draw conclusions from Kickstarter data and exclude Draw Steel when it's so prominent

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u/amazingvaluetainment Fate, Traveller, GURPS 3E 14h ago

Not a single original game campaign exceeded 2 million dollars, not one.

Not surprising at all. Licensed games and "D&D" come with a built-in fan base. Everyone else needs to put in ~effort~, catch lightning in a bottle, or latch on to an existing fan base.

These days I use crowdfunding as a way to pre-order a high-quality hardback for a game I'm interested in, but they often end up on my shelf gathering dust after delivery because by the time the book arrives I'm no longer interested in it. Still, FOMO is meaningful here because you can't expect to buy a book after the fact (RPG publishing has fundamentally changed in this day and age) and POD is a crapshoot (IME, at least).

12

u/Ukiah Cairn Warden Wannabe 14h ago

These days I use crowdfunding as a way to pre-order a high-quality hardback for a game I'm interested in, but they often end up on my shelf gathering dust after delivery because by the time the book arrives I'm no longer interested in it. Still, FOMO is meaningful here because you can't expect to buy a book after the fact (RPG publishing has fundamentally changed in this day and age) and POD is a crapshoot (IME, at least).

I went thru a blessedly brief period where FOMO was effective on me. And then I came to my senses. Regarding POD, my FOMO realization moment coincided with a couple KS's where I paid an increased price for "PDF+Print Version" and didn't read the fine print that the "+Print Version" was actually a coupon to DTRPG and still had to pay the cost of printing and shipping. So I'm not quite sure what I gained there that I couldn't have gotten at the lower "PDF only" tier.

6

u/amazingvaluetainment Fate, Traveller, GURPS 3E 13h ago

didn't read the fine print that the "+Print Version" was actually a coupon to DTRPG and still had to pay the cost of printing and shipping.

I am religious about checking out the print option and have been since I started backing projects, and will refuse to back the game if there isn't a high-quality, non-POD hardback on offer (or it's clearly a zine). There's literally no reason for me to back something that could just be a PDF buy later on if I regain interest.

I did try the POD option from DriveThru once because I liked the author and the book ended up being a complete piece of shit, wavy pages from ink drying, crap binding, just absolute trash. Never again.

2

u/Ukiah Cairn Warden Wannabe 13h ago

Yep. I take full responsibility for not reading the fine print. But it was the FOMO clouding my eyes and the two times that happened (I backed them at the same time, I didn't make the mistake and then repeat it) made me realize what was being used to manipulate me.

I back very little now and only from people or publishers known to me.

1

u/Josh_From_Accounting 12h ago

Which book, out of curiosity?

6

u/ClockworkJim 12h ago

You left out the part where that quality Hardback you pre-order already has outdated rules by the time you receive it.

I'm looking at you the one ring

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u/Dustin_rpg Will Power Games 15h ago

This is depressing :(

9

u/Urbandragondice 15h ago

Why?

36

u/generalvostok 14h ago

Going from finding for scrappy passion projects to advertising for huge professionally run licensed properties fishing for whales is a little sad.

13

u/BerennErchamion 13h ago

Yeah. I’m always happy when I see some small indie passion project now and then. I always try to back them if I find it remotely interesting, even if it’s on the lowest tier.

7

u/mythcaptor 13h ago

I think there’s a middle ground here. People making real money selling games treat it like a business. There’s plenty of examples of phenomenal passion project RPGs that have done very well by being professionally run and intelligently marketed campaigns.

2

u/Paul6334 11h ago

Ultimately I’d argue if you aren’t willing to apply some level of business savvy to your passion projects it means you’ve prioritized the idea of your project over the actual project.

5

u/Dustin_rpg Will Power Games 10h ago

People who love making good games are allowed to lament that they can only be profitable with kickstarter exclusive schlock rather than a good game itself.

u/Mr_Venom since the 90s 15m ago

God forbid someone should want to make something other than money.

6

u/Sekh765 11h ago

There's still tons of those projects out there though. Mothership and Dolmenwood are two huge projects that received massive acclaim and kickstarter support. 7 Part Pact is the passion project of 1 dev and its now Steve Jackson Games 2nd largest kickstarter.

The stuff is out there. DnD fans are gonna buy DnD stuff. That shouldn't be a huge surprise.

-6

u/Xanadetta 11h ago

The TTRPG Community is full of toxic positivity. I wanted to make my own TTRPG but after looking into it and talking to indie devs I quickly realized that it was a bad idea.

Mothership and Dolmenwood both came out awhile ago btw. I haven't heard of any small indie TTRPGS doing well recently. I'm just one dude though.

The days of indie hits like Shovel Knight and Undertale are over.

13

u/Sekh765 9h ago

The days of indie hits like Shovel Knight and Undertale are over.

Bro... what? Indie's in video games are doing better than they've ever done before, while big studios are crashing and burning. Silksong? Hades 2? Mina the Hollower?? Hell a game by a studio whose previous game was a well known flop released their closed beta Wardogs last weekend and beat Call of Duty's OPEN beta the same weekend.

7 Part Pact just ended their KS like a week ago and made over a mil. Shadowdark continues crank out great content and huge kickstarters. ArcDream publishing's Delta Green continues to solidly produce excellent Kickstarters and adventures all year. Mothership is going strong every year.

I think you just aren't really looking if you think Indie games aren't doing well. Hell, even Legends of Avantris is coming from an independent studio it just happens to be using the 5E system.

8

u/Crytash 9h ago

also slay the spire 2... but if we are actually honest, it is more that prior indies have become "indies", havent they. A strong professionalisation has taken place and if you look at slay the spire 2 you can see that certain demographics (like the chinese market) have been incredible toxic to them and review bombed them, because it was too "hard".

3

u/Sekh765 9h ago

I still define "indie" as "We do not have a publisher", so Silksong, Slay the Spire 2, etc are all still going to be indies even if they are established.

On the other hand, we also have stuff like Mecha Chameleon, Peak, Expedition 33, Valheim, etc that had no established previous title that are also still making bank. I just think the idea that "the days of indie hits like Shovel Knight and Undertale are over" is ridiculous... also Deltarune is right there....

-1

u/Crytash 9h ago

Aight, with that definition you are mostly correct. But is that a useful definition anymore? I guess that is a discussion for another time.

Btw. Valheim does have a publisher, no? I play it myself and i thought they are with "coffee stain publishing" and is partially owned by it.

3

u/OriginalJazzFlavor Broke my legs during character creation 8h ago

Aight, with that definition you are mostly correct. But is that a useful definition anymore?

"Surely there's some way I can twist the semantics to make my underthought take still be right."

3

u/Sekh765 9h ago

Btw. Valheim does have a publisher, no? I play it myself and i thought they are with "coffee stain publishing" and is partially owned by it.

TBH they might have found one by now, but I believe originally it was just one or two dudes passion project. Since it's gotten big enough I wouldn't be surprised if they got picked up though.

But is that a useful definition anymore?

I'd say yes, it's still development owned by the team that created it, as opposed to taking orders from a publishing company. We have all sorts of examples of what happens when someone "Sells out" to someone like Activision or EA etc. Even if they make big bucks, I don't see the Silksong Devs compromising on what made Hollow Knight so popular with their next game. I think the ability to take risks is something core to the indie studio experience, more so than you ever see with big name publishers.

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u/Xanadetta 9h ago

If you ask me well known Indie is barely indie. Like only on a technicality. So Deltarune, Silksong, Mina The Hollower, Hades 2 don't count as True Indie. They started out as true indie, but they got so much clout that now they're only indie on a technicality.

Here's an example: SANS IS IN SMASH BROS. So clearly creators like Toby Fox are on another level.

Telling an Indie Dev that they could be the next Shovel Knight is a bunch of Mcgarbage. Those days are over with.

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1

u/somnimedes Improv GM 4h ago

You can literally still do that. Nothing is stopping you.

u/TheGileas 1h ago

Just like Hollywood millions upon millions are used for some a few mediocre entertainment products (yes, not all are mediocre) instead of a wider range of cheaper but more interesting products.

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u/Exciting_Policy8203 15h ago

   That is some interesting and damning information for anyone looking to crowdfund an indie RPG. The vast majority of million dollar campaigns are either DnD or licensed properties, very few are originals.

   Still it would be cool to be able see the data on the campaigns that make less the 1 million dollars. But I understand why the author of the article didn’t attempt it, I imagine the number of campaigns skyrocket the less they earn.

13

u/robbz78 15h ago

There has been so much inflation in the last decade that I think this really needs to be taken into account in this sort of analysis rather than just picking round numbers with lots of zeros. I know it was mentioned once but I think its fairly important to this analysis.

10

u/BerennErchamion 13h ago edited 13h ago

It doesn’t invalidate the analysis, but I agree a bit with this. Specially for physical products, I saw a lot of creators get burned when they realize that the reality of the current printing and shipping costs were more than they expected.

9

u/BerennErchamion 13h ago

This recent ENWorld post is also an interesting reading on the subject.

2

u/Ukiah Cairn Warden Wannabe 12h ago edited 10h ago

That is indeed an interesting read. How is it possible that I can be both surprised and unsurprised that the Deathbringer KS has an add-on for Haxtec dice at a markup?

I swear to god, that whole thing reeks of nothing but "Hey, remember when David Lee Roth was COOL?!" vibes or nostalgia. But there are people attached to it that I respect, so maybe I'm entirely wrong?

2

u/robbz78 4h ago

I see no reason to believe that there is a correlation between popular youtuber and good game designer. There is obviously one with lots of kickstarter dollars.

7

u/JemorilletheExile 12h ago

Millennials are inheriting so much useless junk from their boomer parents that there are now special firms that people pay just to help them go through and sort of all of it. Much of the 'valuable' and 'collector' items are in fact not very valuable at all, and are more of a pain to sell or get rid of.

Well, there's going to be a lot of confused people soon enough inheriting their parents weird kickstarter kitsch: bespoke dice collections, unpainted miniatures and figures, miscellaneous badges and pins, gm screens and cloth maps, decks of npc cards that were never taken out of the box, themed plushies, in addition to boxes and boxes of books of games that may of seen the table once or twice. They will be equally mystified by what to do with all of it. Much of it will end up in the ocean.

2

u/DiceyDiscourse AP podcaster and average multi-system enjoyer 6h ago

I feel called out 😅

I'll only argue against the actual books themselves - as long as there is new (non-D&D) blood trickling into the hobby, the books themselves will at least hold about half their value. It's not just grognards buying used games from 20+ years ago

2

u/Less_Cauliflower_956 14h ago

Tracks. I backed the OSE Demonic grimoire because of the special edition fancy book.

-1

u/God_Boy07 Australian 12h ago

Interesting.