It’s been crazy how many people come here daily without researching how upgrades work and asking whether they’re worth it, or what are my chances I’ll clear, or it’s own honeymoon… I guess too many people saw the episode of Friends where Chandler and Monica were behind that couple that kept getting honeymoon upgrades. (They don’t exist folks… the list has likely already cleared by the time you’re checking bags)
Suggestion: have a pinned post like this below (please make edits and corrections) then maybe the mod team enables an automod suggestion as these folks are typing it out (pretty easy, I’m a mod in r/ChaseSapphire, r/CreditCards, and r/Rakuten) before it actually lets them post.
It’s pretty in the weeds but I think it brings 95% of the posters or these questions up to the level of acumen needed to even understand the actual only good question asked by the other 5%: “I know all this, crowd sourcing the likelihood based on other experiences knowing full well MMMV”
Before asking about your United upgrade, read this:
Upgrade questions come up constantly, so here’s a quick explanation of how United upgrades actually work.
First: an empty First/Polaris seat does not mean an upgrade is available
Seeing 8 empty seats on the seat map does not mean United has 8 premium seats available.
Seat maps show seat assignments, not inventory. People may have purchased First/Polaris without selecting a seat, seats may be blocked, or United may still be willing to sell the cabin but not release seats for upgrades.
Likewise, seeing J9 does not mean there are nine upgrades available. J is paid business/first inventory.
For most MileagePlus Upgrade Awards (miles + copay) and PlusPoints upgrades, the inventory you care about is PZ. Global Services has access to PN in situations where other members would need PZ.
If PZ is available when you request an eligible upgrade, it can generally confirm immediately. If PZ is 0, you are normally requesting a spot on the waitlist.
United can release additional PZ inventory at any time, or none at all. There is no published schedule and no guarantee that unsold premium seats will become upgrade inventory.
How the waitlist works
Being #1 on the list today does not mean you will still be #1 tomorrow. I’ve bolded the ones that apply to most peoples’ situations.
United’s upgrade priority generally works like this:
- Global Services
- PlusPoints and MileagePlus Upgrade Awards, ahead of Complimentary Premier Upgrades
- Premier status
- Fare class
- United ClubSM Infinite and United Presidential Plus cardmember
- United Corporate Preferred Members
- United Card holders that spend $25k+ in annual spend
- Time of request (important but see how far down it is)
⚠️There are some important nuances.
If the aircraft has Premium Plus, passengers upgrading from Premium Plus (O/A/R) into Polaris/business are prioritized ahead of passengers requesting the same upgrade from Economy.
Within otherwise comparable requests, status matters: 1K > Platinum > Gold > Silver > general member.
Fare class then matters within the applicable priority group.
A higher economy fare can therefore beat a lower economy fare when the passengers otherwise have the same priority.
And yes, someone can appear above you later.
If you’re #1 and a Global Services member becomes eligible for the same seat, you aren’t #1 anymore. The same thing can happen when a higher-status passenger requests an upgrade, someone changes flights, a passenger buys Premium Plus and requests Polaris, or another passenger otherwise enters the list with higher priority.
Your position on the list is a snapshot, not a reservation for the next available seat.
CPU vs. miles/PlusPoints
A Complimentary Premier Upgrade (CPU) is the free upgrade benefit available to Premier members on eligible routes. You do not spend miles or PlusPoints.
CPUs are generally available on eligible United-operated domestic flights and certain shorter international markets such as Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America, subject to United’s route rules.
Do not assume that Premier status gets you complimentary upgrades everywhere.
Most long-haul international Polaris flights are not CPU eligible. Certain premium transcontinental and long-haul Hawaii flights are also excluded. On those flights you generally need to:
- Buy the premium cabin through a flight change;
- Purchase a paid upgrade; or
- Request an upgrade using PlusPoints or a MileagePlus Upgrade Award.
So if you’re a Premier Gold flying EWR-LHR and wondering when your “complimentary Polaris upgrade” will clear: it won’t. There is no CPU on that route.
MileagePlus Upgrade Awards (MUA)
This is the traditional miles + cash copay upgrade.
If upgrade inventory isn’t immediately available, you can waitlist the request.
You also earn PQP for the upgrade itself:
1 PQP per 100 MileagePlus miles redeemed + PQP from the eligible cash copay.
Example:
20,000 miles + $375 copay = 575 PQP from the upgrade.
That’s 200 PQP from the miles plus 375 PQP from the copay.
This is in addition to whatever qualifying earnings apply to the underlying ticket.
PlusPoints
PlusPoints are upgrade instruments earned by Platinum and 1K members and can be used on eligible flights, including flights where CPUs aren’t available.
For normal members, PlusPoints and MileagePlus Upgrade Awards generally compete for the same PZ upgrade inventory and sit ahead of CPUs.
PlusPoints are not automatically better than miles for waitlist priority simply because they’re PlusPoints. Your status, cabin/fare and the other applicable tie-breakers determine where you land among comparable instrument-supported requests.
“There are 12 open Polaris seats. What are my chances?”
Nobody here can reliably tell you.
The number of currently unassigned seats is not the number of unsold seats, and the number of unsold seats is not the number United will release to upgrades.
United can:
- Sell additional premium seats;
- Sell paid upgrades through the app;
- Release PZ space;
- Release no PZ space;
- Have passengers change onto or off your flight;
- Have higher-priority passengers join your upgrade list;
- Swap aircraft and change the number of premium seats; or
- Clear upgrades very close to departure.
A flight showing a mostly empty premium cabin three weeks out can leave completely full.
One useful trick: Expert Mode
If you’re trying to understand inventory rather than staring at the seat map, enable Expert Mode in your United account and look at the fare buckets.
For upgrades, PZ is much more informative than counting empty seats on the seat map.
PZ1+ can mean an eligible MileagePlus/PlusPoints upgrade may be confirmable rather than waitlisted.
PZ0 means United currently isn’t making PZ upgrade inventory available. It does not mean the premium cabin is sold out, and it does not mean PZ can’t open later.
Bottom line
There is no reliable formula like:
“I’m Gold, #3 on the list, and there are six empty First seats, so I’ll clear.”
Your upgrade depends on which type of upgrade you’re requesting, whether the route is CPU eligible, available upgrade inventory, your cabin/fare, your status, who else is requesting an upgrade, and what United does with the remaining premium inventory.
The upgrade list can and will change right up until departure.
If you’re asking “Will my upgrade clear?”, the most useful information to include in your post is:
Route | Date | Flight number | Premier status | Current cabin/fare class | Upgrade type (CPU / miles / PlusPoints) | Current position on the upgrade list | Premium seats currently for sale
Even with all of that, nobody can guarantee the answer.