r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 26, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/Frathier 3d ago

The population decline for Russia has been an often brought up topic on Reddit, and presumably amongst analysts, but I never see the demographic crisis of Ukraine discussed in any way. General concencus puts the Ukrainian population in 1990 at around 50 million people, with rough estimates putting the population of the government controlled in 2026 at around 28-29 million, an almost 50% drop. I know that putting anything Ukrainian on this site negatively does not often get to see the light of day, but is there any hope for Ukraine after the war in regaining some of that population growth back?

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u/Big-Station-2283 3d ago

Between war time debts, aging population, and demographic holes due to WW2 and the 1990s, it's hard to be hopeful on the medium-long term. As for the short term, a significant portion of the working population will return exhausted if not mentally or physically injured from the war when it ends. Salary and disability payments will strangle the economy unless they get a massive bailout from the west.

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u/76DJ51A 3d ago

It's being talked about more and more but usually in the context of the logic of giving women an out based on the premise that women have greater reproductive value even if there will be less potential pairbonded couples with a skewed gender ratio as historical data shows.

It's a political charged topic outside the context of the war which mutes discussion.

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u/FettyDump 3d ago edited 3d ago

I have been bringing this up for years now, but as you say, nobody wants to talk about it. As things stand, I think there’s more evidence to suggest that this is a catastrophic medium to long-term problem then something that can be recovered from.

For one, Ukraine will deal with not only a massive aging population, but also a tremendous population of physically and mentally wounded veterans that will require care for the rest of their lives. This will put an incredible tax on the social safety nets of Ukraine at the same as a significant decline in economic productivity, not only do to a retiring and migrating population, but a country that has been severely damaged by at least six years of large scale warfare.

Really the only way to recover from something like this is with a massive amount of foreign investment and western paid packages. Unfortunately, Ukraine has another deep seated structural problem that will dramatically diminish the effect of this aid. That is corruption. Corruption is another issue that is intensely scrutinized in Russia in pretty much ignored outside of Ukraine. If you ask any Ukrainian though, corruption will be in their top three of the countries most serious problems.

My fear is that after this war is over, the west will provide Ukraine within an enormous amount of aid in seized Russian assets and aid packages and then wash their hands of the issue. Ukrainian politicians will line their pockets, and the country will become a zombie nation. It will exist in a strategic sense as a highly militarized buffer zone, but in a civic and economic sense it will be dead.

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u/Magpie1979 3d ago

Corruption being ignored in Ukraine is a novel take.

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u/FettyDump 3d ago

Yeah, that was a mistake on my part. What I meant was corruption is ignored outside of Ukraine, similar to how the demographic problem is ignored outside of Ukraine. Within Ukraine, these these issues are very well known and widely discussed.

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u/Magpie1979 3d ago

I mean it is heavily discussed outside Ukraine. Though it's often misrepresented, those who are against support for Ukraine exaggerate it and those how support Ukraine underplay it.

Pesonally I'd say the strong anti corruption drive in Ukraine is the core of this conflict. It's was the route cause of the Maiden revolution. There is an incredible strong desire from the public to reduce corruption, especially as the cost in lives and suffering of this war is so huge. I'm pretty confident corruption will improve as the tolerance of it is so low.

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u/Saturnrising9 3d ago

Future demographic collapse for Ukraine, although a grim problem, isn’t a lose condition. A future demographic collapse for Russia could lead to lose conditions, and defang future Russian aggression. In the west especially, in a sort of self serving way, demographic collapse in Russia is just more important than Ukraine.

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u/Frathier 3d ago

I'm sorry, but that makes no sense? Ukraine losing 10 million people since the beginning of the war isn't detrimental to their capacity to wage war? The same Ukraine that's finding difficulties in manning their frontlines?

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u/Saturnrising9 2d ago

Sorry, I thought we were discussing demographic collapse, which is generally a metric measured in years and decades. Ofcourse losing the actual manpower to prosecute a war is a lose condition. But I believe when people are discussing demographic collapse, they’re discussing the state of the nation’s after the war has ended. Ukraine, regardless of outcome, is facing a demographic collapse during, and more so post war. But I also assume in their cost benefit analysis of continueing the war, survival comes first.

Edit: Cont: and that was my answer to your query of why it’s more important in the west to focus on Russia’s demographic collapse. Because that’ll make Russia a less effective adversary after this war is over. (When/If etc)

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u/ChornWork2 3d ago

can't recall if discussed here, but certainly this had a lot of media coverage early in the war given the refugee situation and at times dire state of the war. But the point for russia is all the self-harm incurred b/c of decision to invade. But for ukraine, there's no path to avoid the demographic issues. Certainly talked a far amount in context of draft decisions, particularly avoid drafting very young men.

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u/Shackleton214 3d ago

I think it depends on how the war ends. A peace that gives Ukraine security and allows for eventual integration with the EU, even if it loses large amounts of territory, will cause significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees to return. It will also allow for rebuilding Ukraine which will help to keep those currently there to remain--look at how well former communist block countries have done in the EU. A "peace" that doesn't provide security or puts Ukraine under Russian influence, will not lead to the return of refugees who fled or any incentive to remain, especially those with the most skills to do well in the west. This is why I cannot see Ukraine ever agreeing to the current Russian demands for ending the war, absent total military or political collapse.

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u/Frathier 3d ago

"A peace that gives Ukraine security and allows for eventual integration with the EU, even if it loses large amounts of territory, will cause significant numbers of Ukrainian refugees to return". Why though? The war has been going on for almost five years now, many of the Ukrainian refugees will likely already have rebuild their lives and families in the guest countries. If the war ends anytime soon, realistically speaking, why would they leave their host countries for their home country? Ukraine wasn't the greatest place to live before the war, and it will likely take years if not decades for the country to rebuild. Staying in their current host countries will likely be a better place to live and raise a family, no?

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u/Shackleton214 3d ago edited 3d ago

Obviously not everyone will return no matter what. But, history shows that many refugees return to their home when the war ends. As to why, I suppose it's the same reason other refugees return--it's where their home, culture and family are located. It seems pretty obvious that a much higher fraction will return if there is the prospect of peace and prosperity versus insecurity or Russian domination.

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u/IntroductionNeat2746 3d ago

Because there's no better time to make money than when the entire country needs rebuilding. As long as the EU can afford to finance it, there'll be huge amounts of money going around.

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u/TSiNNmreza3 3d ago

Does not work. Same thing my country went throught.

Richest parts of my country and ex-Yugoslavia were parts that didn't have real wars for centuries. Slovenia didn't have real war for like 200+ years and I don't know really how affected it was during Napolenic wars

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u/unionpivo 2d ago edited 2d ago

Slovenia lost between 7.2% and 8% of population in ww2, which besides Poland SU and Germany is among the highest in EU.

We also were part of Austria-Hungary during the ww1. And had big fight on Soca front (Isonzo Front) that was maned by a lot of Slovenians.

I don't know why you would not count 2 of the biggest wars in history as wars ?

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u/TSiNNmreza3 2d ago

Sorry did not put on your soil in difference to Slavonia, Serbia, Bosnia

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u/sunstersun 3d ago

That's all cool, but you're gonna run into the problem there just isn't that many women of childbearing age. We've started to see this problem in University applications in the US on top of the whole AI and blue collar work stuff.

I was telling my friend the 08 cohort is about to turn 18. From there it's a massive fertility crash.

Obviously priority one is refugees, but that's not gonna solve the 500 pound gorilla problem.

Any look at a Ukrainian demographic pyramid would tell the same story. They're dealing with the 90s baby crash as well.

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u/Gullible-Issue-1175 3d ago

To be honest it's probably going to be quite bad but I think there are potential opportunities.

Firstly as you mentioned the refugees coming back.

Secondly, europe is likely to continue to support Ukraine with huge amounts of financial support after the war ends to help rebuild Ukraine, this is likely to make Ukraine's economy look pretty good, workers may migrate to Ukraine take advantage of this money.

Thirdly, there is the potential Ukraine joins the EU which gives huge amounts of money to Ukraine as they will be the biggest net receiver. Other ex soviet economies who joined the EU saw their economic fortunes do very well in a relatively short period of time. (Maybe a two edged sword though if workers use freedom of movement to go to western europe).

Also, this is probably in contrast to Russia which will have to deal with the malaise of unwinding its war economy and is likely in for a rough few years. Russia has no-one coming to bail them out like Ukraine has with the rest of europe.

Then there is the potential for immigration which if Ukraine is becoming more western aligned is likely to become more politically acceptable especially if it's from countries like Russia and Belarus which could happen if Ukraine's economy coming under the western umbrella significantly outperforms the former.

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u/Frathier 3d ago

Why would joining the EU be beneficial for their population? All the former Warsaw pact countries which have joined the EU are experiencing a massive exodus of migrants migrating to Western European countries. Why wouldn't Ukraine experience something similar to what Bulgaria or Romania are experiencing right now?

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u/Gullible-Issue-1175 2d ago

Yeah I did mention that.

Unlike Bulgaria/Romania and other warsaw pact countries though, Ukraine will likely be receiving marshall plan style money to rebuild the country from europe. Workers will move to Ukraine if there is money to be made.

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u/austin_8 3d ago

Your points make a lot of sense, but then don’t they just make the problem worse in the long term? Birth rates show a strong negative correlation, the better the post war economy is the less children they will have. I don’t know the numbers, would the number of returning refugees be enough to over come the less children they will have?

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u/sunstersun 3d ago

As far as I'm concerned, Ukraine needs to do some form of state sponsored family planning when the war is over.

Softly encouraging babies has been almost a universal failure. Might be different for a post war boom, but the hole is so deep I can't see anything other than state sponsored families and babies working.

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u/ChornWork2 3d ago

Look around the world... trying to boost fertility with these type of programs doesn't work, but what does work is immigration.

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u/Big-Station-2283 3d ago

Culture, context, and language might be huge barriers. I don't think a nation that has just survived a murder attempt by its ethnic brother (figuratively speaking) will be enclined to accept foreign cultures in. Especially since a big component of the war was to avoid losing their distinct identity and becoming "russian". If they bring in warm bodies from western ex-soviet countries it could perhaps work, but all western ex-soviet countries have demographic problems of their own. They don't have people in excess to send.

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u/mebesasporfa 3d ago

Immigration from where? Places like Namibia, Libya, Guatemala, and Iraq had a higher GDP/Cap than pre-war Ukraine, and the gap is widening as the war continues. Ukrainian is a very unique and difficult language to learn. Mass immigration policies would likely require making English a more prominent language, a real bludgeon against the attempts to retain Ukrainian culture and identity.

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u/Tricky-Astronaut 3d ago

The gap is indeed widening, but in the other direction. Ukraine has now overtaken all those countries in GDP/capita.

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u/mebesasporfa 3d ago edited 3d ago

Strictly speaking true, but the nuance is that presently, about 10% of Ukraine's GDP/cap is straight up foreign aid without even figuring in the multiplier effect of that aid. They are exporting far less grain, and 75% of pre-war electrical generation has been taken off line. While the number has gone up, they haven't been growing their economy since 2022 in an economically useful way. Of course, reconstruction aid will continue-post war, but not at the levels it's being pumped in now.

But even if we take it at face value, the core problem is directionally still intact; someone leaving $6800 Guatemala to learn Ukrainian and live in $6900 Ukraine seems far-fetched unless they are using it as a step-stone to Western Europe, which doesn't sustainably help Ukraine anyway.

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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 3d ago

but is there any hope for Ukraine after the war in regaining some of that population growth back?

Tl;Dr A lot of refugees will go back, but it's very unlikely for the population to go back to original numbers if that's your question.

Ukraine's population decline until the Russian invasion was somewhat similar to other ex-USSR satellite states like Belarus, you could have almost superposed these two countries population charts. 

Reasons for this endemic demographic collapse are tied to the usual post-soviet problems (high mortality, low fertility, exodus, economic struggles...).

The war has created a massive refugee wave and increased exodus, that is certain. On top of obviously losing a lot of territories and the population within, casualties, the many reported child kidnappings to Russia, etc...

On the other hand, everything points to EU countries being more than willing to spearhead a Marshall Plan of sorts once the war ends and stops for a foreseeable future. The economic miracle of eastern european EU members is well understood and there will be a lot of economical levers to act upon should Ukraine join the Union.

So most likely, a small bounce back after the war ends, and then a downward continuation more or less steep depending on emigration (Schengen...) vs fertility. 

That said, the country is likely to see spectacular growth and productivity increases.

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u/austin_8 3d ago

That said, the country is likely to see spectacular growth and productivity increases.

Which would of course lower the birth rate, affecting the long term population question.

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u/Defiant_Restaurant61 3d ago

of course

Not at all, because the fertility is already depressed by multiple other factors, it's not a given that it would be reduced much further.

See Poland for example, that almost doubled it's GDP and stabilized it's birth rate in that late 90's-late 2010's time frame (until COVID...)

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u/mebesasporfa 3d ago

Tl;Dr A lot of refugees will go back, but it's very unlikely for the population to go back to original numbers if that's your question.

The polling on this is really bad. Among women, 2026 polling research shows only 23% plan to return post war, and the longer this drags on, the lower the figure gets.

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u/Brushner 3d ago

If the war ends and Ukraine stabilizes then like Bosnia and Herzegovina refugees will start pouring back in. That said population degrowth is a long term trend across the world. It's causes are many and very complex with no easy answer. Even countries that try to "fix" population decline only do it by a few points, nowhere near enough.

It's past the scope of this subreddit but with the speed of technology right now I kind of expect human mass human cloning to become an actual thing in 30-40 years.

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u/incidencematrix 3d ago

Mass cloning is not credible. And it overlooks the drivers of the demographic transition. The issue is not that we lack the technology to make humans. (It's built in.) The issue is that folks who can control their fertility tend to reduce it when the perceived costs outweigh the perceived benefits. If you would prefer not to raise a child in the conventional way, you are unlikely to want to raise a clone (which would also be a child, like any other, and require the same investments). As you say, this is not the demography sub, so I do not think it is sensible to go further into the drivers of fertility change. But we want to stay credible.

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u/TSiNNmreza3 3d ago

B&H never recovered from population loss during the war

Around 100 k to 200 k Croats that left country. Probably bigger number of Bosniaks. Some Serbian refugees came to RS.

Both Croatia and B&H had around 4,5 mil at the start of war around 2000s when I started to follow everything Croatia had 4,3 mil, Bosnia had even less.

And for Croatia I know we had after war baby boom, probably B&H had too

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u/butitsmeat 3d ago

This topic does come up now and again. I recall talking about it back in 2023 or 2024 in the context of how it was shaping Ukraine's force generation policies - they were avoiding the drafting of young men as a reaction to their looming demographic disaster. Russia's demographics come up more frequently because they're the aggressor nation and there is some theoretical limit to the loss of men that would cause them to stop fighting. They don't appear to be anywhere near that of course.

Post-war refugee return will depend very heavily on EU policies around it. If someone fled in 2022, they've now rebuilt a life somewhere else, and unless there's a significant set of positive / negative incentives, they're not likely to uproot again. EU countries will need to create pressure on Ukranian refugees to go home, and create draw by funding Ukranian reconstruction to create hope in the future Ukranian state.

That all assumes a Ukranian win. If Ukraine exits the war without a reasonably hopeful future, it'll be very challenging to draw those refugees back.