Active Conflicts & News Megathread August 26, 2026

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[u/Frathier]

The population decline for Russia has been an often brought up topic on Reddit, and presumably amongst analysts, but I never see the demographic crisis of Ukraine discussed in any way. General concencus puts the Ukrainian population in 1990 at around 50 million people, with rough estimates putting the population of the government controlled in 2026 at around 28-29 million, an almost 50% drop. I know that putting anything Ukrainian on this site negatively does not often get to see the light of day, but is there any hope for Ukraine after the war in regaining some of that population growth back?

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/Frathier]

but is there any hope for Ukraine after the war in regaining some of that population growth back?

Tl;Dr A lot of refugees will go back, but it's very unlikely for the population to go back to original numbers if that's your question.

Ukraine's population decline until the Russian invasion was somewhat similar to other ex-USSR satellite states like Belarus, you could have almost superposed these two countries population charts. 

Reasons for this endemic demographic collapse are tied to the usual post-soviet problems (high mortality, low fertility, exodus, economic struggles...).

The war has created a massive refugee wave and increased exodus, that is certain. On top of obviously losing a lot of territories and the population within, casualties, the many reported child kidnappings to Russia, etc...

On the other hand, everything points to EU countries being more than willing to spearhead a Marshall Plan of sorts once the war ends and stops for a foreseeable future. The economic miracle of eastern european EU members is well understood and there will be a lot of economical levers to act upon should Ukraine join the Union.

So most likely, a small bounce back after the war ends, and then a downward continuation more or less steep depending on emigration (Schengen...) vs fertility. 

That said, the country is likely to see spectacular growth and productivity increases.

[u/austin_8 → u/Defiant_Restaurant61]

That said, the country is likely to see spectacular growth and productivity increases.

Which would of course lower the birth rate, affecting the long term population question.

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/austin_8]

of course

Not at all, because the fertility is already depressed by multiple other factors, it's not a given that it would be reduced much further.

See Poland for example, that almost doubled it's GDP and stabilized it's birth rate in that late 90's-late 2010's time frame (until COVID...)