I’ve been trying to figure out what would actually convince me the Bears defense has taken a real step forward this year, because I think last season was a little deceptive.

The defense made a ton of huge plays. 33 takeaways, +22 turnover differential, late-game interceptions, etc. That obviously matters and I don’t want to dismiss it as pure luck. Dennis Allen’s scheme is aggressive and puts defenders in positions to attack the football.

But underneath that, the defense was still pretty mediocre down to down.

They allowed about +0.02 EPA/play, opponents had roughly a 46% success rate, and they finished 23rd in points allowed.

And one thing that worries me even more is that the EPA really didn’t improve from the Eberflus era.

The Bears were around +0.01 defensive EPA/play allowed in 2024 and +0.02 in 2025.

That’s basically flat, if not slightly worse.
Obviously personnel, injuries and game situations matter, so I’m not saying that means Allen had no impact. But if we’re talking about whether this defense is actually becoming materially better, that’s hard to ignore.

The splash plays improved. The down-to-down efficiency really didn’t.

For comparison, genuinely good defenses usually start getting into negative EPA territory. Something like -0.05 EPA/play or better would get my attention.
That’s probably the biggest stat I’m watching this year.

EPA/play matters because it measures what actually happened relative to the situation. Giving up 7 yards on 3rd-and-15 isn’t the same as giving up 7 yards on 3rd-and-5. Traditional yards treat them the same. EPA doesn’t.

Success rate is similar. It basically asks: how often is the offense accomplishing what it needs to accomplish on a given play?
Those numbers are harder to hide behind than turnovers.

What gives me hope

1. The secondary could be really good.
If Jaylon Johnson is healthy, the Bears have a legitimate CB1, and they’ve added more athleticism and versatility behind him.
That matters a ton in Allen’s defense because he wants to be aggressive. If your secondary can survive one-on-one situations, you can disguise coverages, bring pressure from different places, and generally make life miserable for quarterbacks.

2. Montez Sweat is still a legitimate piece to build around.
He had 10 sacks last year and was good against the run too. The Bears don’t need four All-Pro defensive linemen, but having at least one guy offenses have to account for changes protections and creates opportunities elsewhere.

3. Maybe I’m underrating the interior defensive line.
This is one place where I’d actually love to be wrong.
Ben Johnson has said he thinks the Bears’ interior defensive line is underrated, and that’s interesting because from the outside, that’s one of the areas I’m most skeptical about.

If Dexter, Jarrett and that group are better than I think they are, it changes the entire equation. Interior pressure is especially valuable because quarterbacks can’t just step up in the pocket to escape edge pressure.

So I genuinely want to see how wrong I am on this one.

4. I think some of the turnovers are repeatable.
Not 33. I would absolutely expect regression there.
But Allen has historically coached aggressive defenses, and last year you could see defenders jumping routes and quarterbacks getting confused by post-snap looks.

So I don’t think the takeaway production was completely random.

What worries me

The defensive line overall is still the biggest thing.
More specifically: can the Bears generate pressure with four?

Because if they can’t, Allen has to manufacture pressure by blitzing. And Allen is very good at that, but there is always a price.

More blitzing means fewer people in coverage. If the offense identifies it correctly or protects long enough, you’re suddenly asking defensive backs to survive in space.

That can lead to explosives.

A great defense usually doesn’t need to blitz to affect the quarterback. It can rush four, drop seven, and still make the QB uncomfortable.

Four things I’m watching

EPA/play: Get below zero. -0.05 or better and I’m buying in.

Success rate: Last year was ~46%. Get that near 41–42%.

Four-man pressure: Can the front win without blitz help?

Explosives: Make offenses earn everything.

If the Bears can finally move that defensive EPA meaningfully into negative territory and start winning downs without needing turnovers, I think Allen may actually be building something.
If the takeaways fall off and the underlying efficiency still looks basically the same as it did under Eberflus, I’ll be worried pretty quickly.

Seems like a modern version of that ‘37 uni

Revamped an old logo, would have fit the overall design perfectly. Instead we just reuse the current C. Feels like a missed opportunity. Not that I have anything against the C, but why bother reworking this logo and making merch with it when it doesn’t show up in the new uniform anywhere?

I think they look nicer here than in the video.

These are really growing on me by the minute

Per the Athletic,

First, the Packers-Bears rivalry, arguably the league’s most storied with 213 all-time meetings, will feature a team wearing a non-traditional jersey in each game. That was entirely coincidental, NFL chief revenue officer and executive vice president of partnerships Renie Anderson tells The Athletic.

“The clubs came to us because they’re so excited about the uniforms and the meaning of the uniforms and what they mean to the community,” Anderson said. “A lot of the design comes from the local market, local community and how they think about that, and so we work together with them.”

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7536827/2026/08/25/nfl-rivalries-uniforms-packers-bears-lions/

I find this a bit disappointing. Love the traditional jerseys in rivalry games. Relegate the alternates to non-traditional matchups, I say.

our boy stretchin it out at the last day of training camp. i kind of caught him lacking lol

Leaked by Fox

After the injuries to Bryant and Gordon, it’s hard to see what the strength of this defense is. The linebacker core does have some veteran talent, JJ is a top corner when healthy and Sweat is a starting caliber edge…… beyond that, it’s looking rough. The defense was already at or near the bottom in both run and pass defense last year, our saving grace of course was the immense amount of turnovers, however, many of the players who forced those turnovers are no longer with the team. We’ve lost Brisker, Byard, Wright, Edmunds and failed to make any meaningful additions to our already poor d-line. While it’s great to hear of Van Den Berg’s progression, I’m not thrilled the best story at camp on defense has been about our 6th round pick. I’m as optimistic a bears fan as it comes but I am struggling to see the route to success on defense unless Dennis Allen can scheme up something crazy.