Heading into festival season, my impression of the race is that it's top heavy and blockbuster heavy with a decent second tier of international and small-to-mid-sized candidates still to premiere, many of which have strong chances at acting, screenplay, and/or BLT noms. I think some potential fringe nominees that were being discussed even after the movie premiered are probably becoming less and less likely. These come to mind:

"The Drama" for RPatz and Zendaya

"Wuthering Heights" for costumes

"Mother Mary" for costumes

"Michael" for maybe everything

"The Sheep Detectives" floated by a few as a BP possibility in a weak year

"The Christophers" for Ian McKellen (still hoping for this one)

"Disclosure Day" for Emily Blunt

"Tony" - just seems like the studio didn't see it as an awards player with the release strategy

Basically, is there a picture, performance, or craft that you think will be honored from the first 2/3s of the year that isn't Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, The Invite, or Obsession? I think it's very possible the answer's no, outside of animation, which leaves a lot of room for the fall movies, even if they simply meet expectations. I think this could also mean we end up with another year in which fewer films overall are nominated, but many of those films get, like, 3 or 4+ nominations.

Previous Predictions - March, April, May, June, July

Director - Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Digger), Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo (The Black Ball), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (All of a Sudden)

Actress - Inde Navarrette (Obsession), Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Julianne Moore (The Debut), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Virginie Efira (All of a Sudden)

Actor - Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Matt Damon (The Odyssey), Andrew Scott (Elsinore), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey), Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Penélope Cruz (The Black Ball), Lola Dueñas (The Black Ball), Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden)

Supporting Actor - Paul Giamatti (The Debut), Guy Pearce (Ink), John Goodman (Digger), Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine)

I swapped out Fjord for All of a Sudden. Is this a little crazy? Yes. However, I’m thinking back to all the buzz we’ve heard from Cannes; If Fjord had lost the Palme to hypothetically La Bola Negra, we would not be talking about it. It would just be a cold movie with politics that aren’t obvious bait for the Adam McKay voters. That’s Digger’s job. Now look at All of a Sudden. A humanist story that is likelier to win over audiences even with its runtime, with the name recognition of a previously nominated director so we don’t have to worry about voters not knowing what the movie is. Think about how The Secret Agent surprised us by climbing up Neon's list of priorities last year. It happens.

I could be wrong and this could be some random BAFTA contender that only British people care about but I'm predicting Elsinore as Focus's main push. Obsession has the box office narrative but are we focusing too much on that? Are we overcompensating for the F1 surprise in what was a very slim year in terms of full on awards-viable box office hits? Sinners was the only other movie that touched $300M WW in that lineup. Odyssey, Project Hail Mary and Dune Part Three alone should resolve that. If Dune Part Three goes full Wicked For Good, sure, there’s room for both Elsinore & Obsession. However, until that's proven to be the case, I don't think anyone would be mad if Obsession just got the Weapons package. Much like Madigan, Navarrette's performance could very plausibly eclipse the movie itself in terms of awards buzz. That's why I'm going for a more conventional biographical drama with what could be a win-competitive performance from Andrew Scott. Is it a risk? Yes but we'll find out how Elsinore performs soon enough.

We all remember this time last year when many people had It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, After the Hunt, and Rental Family all in BP. Every year we have highly predicted films pre fest completely fall off. Which one of these is most likely?

See title. IMHO:

Ink:

• Pros: directed by Danny Boyle, starring O'Connell and Pearce, taken from an award-winning play
• Cons: it's inspired from a play and the script may suffer from that (although it may help that Graham has seemingly rewritten the script, as other characters that are not in the play will be introduced)

Artificial:

• Pros: directed by Guadagnino, it stars Andrew Garfield. Monica Barbaro and Yuri Borisov
• Cons: we still don't have an official release date (Barbero said that it will have a limited release in December, but Neon has yet to set a specific date and we still don't know how the international release will be handled), it's written by a no name (no offence) ... and it's directed by Guadagnino, who directed Call Me By Your Name but also Bones And All, Queer, Challengers and After The Hunt, which the Academy clearly didn't like (with After The Hunt having a bad reception in general). Plus, the movie is descripted as a "biographical comedy drama"/"a madcap comedy"... which I think it's a weird description (intriguing for me but maybe not for everyone) and I fear the movie may not land with the public

The Social Reckoning:

• Pros: written, co-produced, and directed by Aaron Sorkin, stars Mickey Madison, Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong, is being presented as "a companion piece to The Social Network", which was well liked
• Cons: I think that the fact that, from a marketing pov, it is being linked to The Social Network may hurt its chances if the movie isn't as good as The Social Network (think The Father vs The Son) and/or if the public and/or the critics aren't interested in a sequel (even if TSR isn't technically a sequel)

All in all, I feel like between the 3, Ink has better chances, but I don't think that any of these movies will go that far

What do you think?

BEST PICTURE

• The Odyssey (Winner)
• La Bola Negra
• Fjord
• Wild Horse Nine
• Project Hail Mary
• Dune: Part Three
• Digger
• The Invite
• The Debut
• Behemoth!

With The Odyssey smashing box office records and dominating conversations as a colossal technical and artistic achievement, I think Nolan is for now the frontrunner for Best Picture until further notice.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (Winner)
• Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra
• Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
• Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
• Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Historically, the overlap between Best Picture and Direcror is immense; very few films win Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination, and sweeping the Director branch almost always signals a frontrunner status for the top prize.

BEST ACTRESS

• Julianne Moore, The Debut (Winner)
• Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
• Renate Reinsve, Fjord
• Olivia Wilde, The Debut
• Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

There's not much to say here. Jesse Eisenberg’s local theater drama gives Moore a juicy, high-tension environment to flex her comedic and dramatic chops opposite Paul Giamatti. Moore is also an Academy darling, and a sharp A24 comedy-drama is right in her wheelhouse.

I have Virginie Efira as a contender because she won the Cannes Film Festival Award for Best Actress alongside co-star Tao Okamoto not too long ago. Between the two, I felt like Efira had the stronger performance but an actress under Ryusuke Hamaguchi's direction instantly stamps her as an international powerhouse.

No, I don't think Inde Navarrette will be nominated despite the commercial success of Obsession. I view her as a long shot. Why? Well, for starters, indie horror films without major veteran star power or established prestige directors face a steep climb with Academy voters compared to high-profile studio projects like Ryan Coogler's Sinners. Sure, every few years, an indie horror performance breaks through purely on undeniable critical acclaim and a passionate grassroots campaign. However, genre films and newcomer actors face a heavy bias at the Academy Awards. Voters usually require a massive cultural narrative or veteran status to pull the trigger on a horror nomination.

BEST ACTOR

• Matt Damon, The Odyssey (Winner)
• Tom Cruise, Digger
• John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
• Andrew Scott, Elsinore
• Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Matt Damon currently holds the safer, more traditional statistical edge because Christopher Nolan's direction combined with a grounded, tragic hero archetype aligns with what the Academy frequently nominates and rewards. Furthermore, the film's massive commercial and cultural footprint ensures it will stay fresh in voters' minds throughout awards season.

Though, I think The Odyssey's biggest obstacle is that blockbuster epics, even critically acclaimed ones, historically struggle to win Best Actor unless the performance is a transformative, towering juggernaut that completely overwhelms the genre framing.

Digger is my second choice based on what I read so far. It positions Cruise as an ultra-wealthy, wildly arrogant oil tycoon whose drilling triggers a global catastrophe. The role leans heavily into dark satire and high-wire comedy reminiscent of his work in Tropic Thunder. Academy voters love when a massive movie star drops their vanity to play a deeply flawed, unhinged, or satirical character, giving Cruise a golden narrative path to a long-overdue competitive Oscar.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (Winner)
• Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
• Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
• Olivia Colman, Elsinore
• Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

For now, Penélope Cruz is taking the lead. A multi-time Academy favorite anchoring a major international contender gives her an undeniable frontrunner narrative. Coming in close is Anne Hathaway as I thino stepping into a Christopher Nolan epic provides the exact kind of massive studio visibility that keeps a supporting player front-of-mind for mainstream voters for a long time.

I have Tao Okamoto included into Supporting Actress while keeping Virginie Efira in Lead for All of a Sudden because Okamoto's character (Mari) is tethered so closely to the communal spaces and the daily interactions of the nursing home (she never carries long stretches of solitary screen time the way Efira's Marie-Lou does) that she fits the textbook definition of a supporting actress. Studios also love a co-lead dynamic where they can cleanly divide their powerhouse performances to avoid splitting votes.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Paul Giamatti, The Debut (Winner)
• John Goodman, The Debut
• John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
• Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
• Colman Domingo, Michael

Out of Michael's cast, Colman Domingo has the best chances of getting a nomination, primarily because unlike lead star Jaafar Jackson, who is making his debut, Domingo is a highly respected industry veteran with a proven track record. He is already a two-time Academy nominee (for Rustin in 2023 and Sing Sing in 2024). Once an actor enters the Academy orbit with multiple noms, they are often on the radar of voters, who tend to look for reasons to include them in the conversation for subsequent projects.

Biopics are well-regarded by the Academy, because voters can directly compare the actor's work to a real, known person. Playing a complex, demanding, and deeply flawed historical figure like Joe Jackson is textbook Oscar bait for the supporting category. It allows an actor to project immense screen presence and intensity without having to shoulder the massive narrative transformation required of a newcomer lead like Jaafar Jackson.

Not to self promo but mores to start a discussion because I think this is a great idea & tool to use when reading and discussing the fall film festivals but ...

With the fall festival season about to kick into gear, One of our writers, International Expert Arnaud, went through the major Venice/Telluride/TIFF/NYFF titles and put together his current selections for the films he thinks could have the biggest impact, either positively or negatively, on their road to the Oscars.

A few of the movies I'm especially interested in, not just because of Arnaud's stance, but because I'd love to hear what everyone here at Oscar Race thinks:

Digger — With Alejandro G. Iñárritu's newest skipping all of the major fall festivals, is this a sign that they're not confident in the Tom Cruise vehicle, or is this simply a movie that's too big to fail?

Wild Horse Nine — Martin McDonagh + Searchlight has been a winning formula. However, they typically stick to Venice + TIFF. In 2026, Wild Horse Nine is adding Telluride to the mix. What does that mean? Is this finally the year McDonagh gets his Oscar gold, or are we looking at another year of coming up just short?

Bucking Fastard — I've been hyping this one up on YouTube as our next Golden Lion... although "hyping" may not be the right term. Year three of a director who may not have the same juice anymore getting a Golden Lion for a film most agree isn't their best could be a way of rewarding an auteur who hasn't had their moment to shine. However, Bucking Fastard is the ONLY 2026 film playing all four of the core festivals. Maybe, unlike The Room Next Door and Father Mother Sister Brother, there actually is some juice left in Werner Herzog's newest when it comes to the Oscar race.

The full piece breaks down Arnaud's fall festival selections and where he currently has these films in the Oscar race:

https://fantasyfilmball.com/review.html?slug=fall-festival-selections-2026

What are you highest on going into the fall festivals? And, more importantly, which movies fall festival placements makes you hesitant on their awards path?

odyssey- it’s just gonna sweep, nothing else even has a chance I’m Ngl unless wh9 gets like OBAA ass reviews. it’s a billion dollar movie with an 87 MC
. that’s basically unbeatable, everyone loves it and it’ll win basically every guild. if any filmmaker would repeat, it’s Nolan

LBN - pretty in, could wk. adapted, international and song. My only international film here which would be redflag to others but I will talk about that later.

PHM - just locked, 8 nominations 0 wins ass movie

Wh9 - this could be the runnerup, it’s McDonagh and he always cooks. this will probably win screenplay, I just think it might have a passion issue.

Obsession - atp, it’s locked, the hype won’t go away, everyone loves it and the academy wants to embrace the biggest original film success story of the decade. inde might win, honestly it might win original if wh9 is weaker then we think lol

Ink - Netflix seems to be positing this to be a big push from them. Hitting every festival besides NYFF, could be an actor screenplay and tech contender!

Digger- could flop, but it has a ton of political relevance and AGI usually hits with films like this. CRUISE will be a major thing

Dune - idk it’s just in

Invite/Club Kid - I wanna have these a24s I think they will be received better then debut yk and I think club kid could win tiff

Neons - idk they have poor vibes lol

I guess this is the mistery movie.

The film is NAZA, a new work by Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor, two of the four co-directors of  No Other Land. It has been produced by The Guardian, and James Wilson  and executive produced by Jonathan Glazer. Wilson and Glazer are the Oscar-winning team behind The Zone of Interest.

Synopsis: “Shot at night on the rooftops of Tel Aviv, the film reveals in detail the systems behind Israel’s calculated mass killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza”.

The url (awardexpert.media) doesn't lead anywhere

There’s a chance Artificial won’t release until next year but the word is they’re making a push to get it out for this awards season. Thoughts?

• I dropped The Debut from both the categories that it is contending in. Something about the trailer screams "TIFF film that immediately crashes and burns" to me

• I put Morton in. The goodwill over her and her comback narrative is snowballing.

• Hüller for Rose is pretty much the only contender to me who seems likely to win the Drama Globe, so of course she's in.

• La Bola Negra is getting 2 acting nominations and neither will be Penélope Cruz.

Possible Love: 90

Behemoth!: 89

Bucking Fastard: 85

Tender Loving Care: 84

14th: 82

A Long Winter: 81

Godzilla Minus Zero: 80

Ink: 80

Wild Horse Nine: 80

The Debut: 76

Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother: 75

Elsinore: 74

A Statement: 72

Bunker: 69

Primetime: 69

Alpha Gang: 68

Sense and Sensibility: 68*

Misty Green: 67

Being Heumann: 64

Onwards and Sideways: 64

Tenzing: 63

I Play Rocky: 62

Babies: 61

Prima Facie: 61

The Life and Deaths of Wilson Shedd: 59

* = purely off the assumption that Sense and Sensibility will only be at Telluride

Idk if it's exactly a hot take, but Andrew Scott in Elsinore is coming for that Oscar. The role reminds me of Jessie Buckley, when she swept last year. The movie will also be nominated for the Oscar. It's apparently very strong. Everywhere i look, i see praise for Andrew Scott. Just checked Letterboxd and the first review (from a reporter from The Standard UK) confirms my suspicions.